Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Another Record Set Today

After tying a record yesterday morning for the warmest overnight low, we shattered the existing record this morning by only dropping to 70; the previous record was 65 set back in 1983.  Keep in mind today is also the normal first freeze date for Tulsa and the normal max/min temperature for today is 67/45.  In other words, we started the day warmer than we would normally be for our daytime high, which for today topped out at 85; a little short of the record 89 set back in 1909.  By the way, here is how the day went across the rest of the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.

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There is some question as to whether that 70 will hold till midnight though as we have a good chance of showers/storms early tonight in advance of a cool front that will be moving through the area towards morning.  Point is, we could get some rain cooled air dropping us below 70 by midnight, but will still be above the previous record of 65 so perhaps that is a moot point.  At any rate, the front arriving during the morning hours will not cool things off much initially as we will still be in the 60s to start the day, but a brisk northerly wind and cloudy skies for most of the day should keep us from warming much with afternoon temperatures expected to hold in the 60s to near 70. 

A few showers/storms tonight could be locally quite strong but those would be very spotty.  Most of us should see at least some rain from the system, but this does not look to be the widespread, generous rain event that we really need.  Here is the 7 day QPF map which would also include a slight chance of showers early next week, but even with that included the potential is only ½” or so for most of us.  Notice also on the QPF map the potential for heavier rains in W TX. 

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That is due to a system aloft hanging back in the southern Rockies and the energy from that system is basically robbing us of the more widespread, heavier rains that we would ordinarily expect from a front moving through.  Here is the position of the system as of Thursday morning as depicted on the 500 mb, or 18,000’ level.  The next map is of the same level only for Saturday evening.  Notice how it is weakening and opening up as it ejects to the NE.  The main issue for us as this process takes place is that ordinarily we would expect clear skies after the cooler, drier air moves in during the day Thursday.  Instead, we expect to have considerable high level, cirrus cloud cover which will have an impact on our temperatures.

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As a result, have started trending our morning lows up from the previous forecast and am holding our daytime highs down somewhat despite a return to a more southerly wind over the weekend and early next week as you can see on our forecast page.

Another weak frontal boundary looks to arrive along about Tuesday with a chance of showers/storms for the Monday/Tuesday time frame and a bit of a cool-down going into Wednesday.  Still no sign of any really chilly air coming this way which typically occurs by this time of year.  In fact, above normal temperatures look to persist into the 8-14 day time period, not only for OK but for much of the country.  This would suggest daytime highs generally in the 70s as our normal highs by then are in the mid 60s.  Our chances for any organized, widespread, generous rains during that period are not very optimistic either.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot