The pattern will bring a fast moving disturbance into the area later tonight into Wednesday morning and afternoon with a chance for some scattered showers and storms across southern Kansas and northern OK. After this wave exits the area, we’re looking at another stretch of mild weather with another front crossing the state this weekend but with no precipitation expected and no real change in temperature. The early outlook for Halloween will feature above normal temperatures and no precipitation.
A fast moving mid-length trough will move across the central plains into the upper Midwest later this afternoon and evening and will exit the region Wednesday midday to afternoon. A weak surface boundary will also move southward Wednesday into Thursday but no major cool-down will occur with this system. A few showers and storms will be possible later tonight across northwestern OK and a few of these storms may be strong to near severe with some marginally severe hail. Wednesday morning through midday a few showers or storms may be possible. Instability will be lacking Wednesday morning but will increase (in the model data) by midday to afternoon. After tomorrow morning, some of the convective allowing models ( CAMS) indicate the potential for a few storms from 1pm through the afternoon into the early evening across eastern OK. If this does occur, a few of these could be strong to severe. This means the potential for any strong to severe storm activity will remain low but not zero with this event. A few storms may produce some small hail and/or gusty winds. The model output also suggests meager amounts will be possible with any storm activity and this system will not be a big rainfall maker for eastern OK. Some locations will miss-out from the precipitation.
Thursday morning will feature lows in the 50s along with north winds but temperatures Thursday afternoon will climb back to near 80 with winds shifting back from the south later in the afternoon. Friday morning temperatures will start in the upper 50s or lower 60s and climb to highs near 86 along with gusty south to southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph.
This weekend most data suggest another surface boundary will near and pass the area Saturday night into Sunday with no precipitation and very little temperature change. Warm weather will remain.
Halloween appears mild with lows in the 50s and highs in the lower 80s.
A stronger looking system will near the state by the middle to end of next week. At appears we’re going to end the month with more warm air.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!