Fall Weather on the Way, Finally!

If it holds, we set another record this morning as the low temperature only dropped to 70 and the previous record for warmest low temperature on this date was 69.  But, that is not likely to make it into the record book as we expect to be cooler than that before midnight tonight.  At any rate, this continues a trend that is unprecedented in our weather history over the last 3 days.  As mentioned in yesterday’s blog, we set records Sun AM, Mon AM and again Mon PM and although no records were set on Saturday, it was still a very warm day.  That makes those three days the warmest on record for those dates with an average temperature of 79.0 which far surpasses the previous record set back in 1965 of 75.5.  So far, the month of October is running more than 5 degrees warmer than normal.

That will finally be changing in the days ahead though as a front that moved into the state today and has stalled out just south of the Tulsa area has brought somewhat cooler and drier air for many locations.  Notice for example the temperature change over the last 24 hours as of late this afternoon.  Despite that drop in temperature, we are still much warmer than normal today, but at least the drier air has made it more pleasant for those locations that have received the drier air. 

[img]

That is evident from the 24 hour dew point change map as of this afternoon.  It is this drier air that has moved in for some of us which will allow temperatures to drop off into the 60s before the midnight hour and down to the lower 60s by morning.

[img]

Much lighter winds have also been the general rule for today after several days of strong and gusty southerly winds which had wind speeds up to and in excess of 40 mph at times.  Notice the winds as of late this afternoon are much lighter and the directional changes reflect the general location of the weak frontal boundary.

[img]

That boundary will hang around for much of the day Wednesday before finally getting a bigger push to the SE as a system aloft moves overhead.  That will result in a chance of some showers/storms along and SE of the boundary which places the I-44 corridor on the NW fringe of any rain chances.  Locations further SE will see better chances and a few locally strong to marginally severe storms may occur late in the day and into the Wednesday night time frame.  At least, the partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies should hold temperatures to around the 80 degree mark for many locations.

After that, a brisk northerly wind and clearing skies for Thursday will finally bring a return to more seasonal temperatures.  We should be in the lower 50s that morning and mid-upper 60s that afternoon.  As you can see on our forecast page, Friday morning will be even cooler but our winds will be quickly returning to a southerly direction resulting in another warming trend through the weekend and into early next week.  By the way, the normal range at this time of year is the low 70s during the day and around 50 at night.

Unfortunately, any additional rain chances are in the slim to none category after Wednesday and most of that will be confined to the more SE counties.  There are some indications of a weak system that could produce a few spotty showers along about the middle of next week, but nothing widespread nor organized is currently foreseen. 

Looking further down the road, the 8-14 day outlook continues with a strong signal suggesting warmer than normal conditions for OK for that last week of October.  But, the 8-14 day outlook also suggests the potential for several additional rounds of showers/storms over that time frame and we could certainly use the moisture.

[img]

[img]

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot