More summertime weather is likely today before another cold front brings a taste of fall weather back to the state for the middle and end of the week. Strong south winds along with sunny and warm conditions will remain today with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
The upper air pattern supports a ridge of high pressure across the southern plains with a fast zonal flow positioned across the central plains while the more active northern stream is well removed across the northern plains into southern Canada. This west to east flow will buckle Wednesday and Thursday as a trough approaches the region.
This will shove a front into the state Tuesday into Wednesday with cooler air arriving by the end of the week as the trough moves across eastern OK. The moisture at the lower level may support a few showers or storms with the frontal passage but the data keep most of this activity removed from the metro. We’ll need to keep a mention for some activity with this system for the Tuesday and Wednesday period. Much drier air will invade the area Thursday and Friday and will continue through the weekend. A small northwest flow aloft pattern will support a pleasant and dry weekend with another fast moving trough brushing the region by the middle of the following week.
At this point we see no major storm systems on the horizon.
Locations across northwestern OK this afternoon will be behind a dry-line passage with very low humidity and moisture content. This will allow for extremely high wild fire conditions and Red Flag warnings will be issued for these areas. The dry air also heats efficiently and daytime highs, despite the time of year, could hit 100 this afternoon across northwestern OK.
Some locations across north-central OK may eventually be included in some kind of a fire watch or red flag warning product if the dry air mixes slightly more to the east than currently anticipated. This dry air will remain west of our areas of eastern OK for today but we’ll still see daytime highs well above the seasonal average.
This morning’s data continues to offer a front moving south of the metro Tuesday and then returning northward briefly Wednesday morning to midday before moving southward by Wednesday afternoon. This will create a small forecasting headache regarding the exact location of the boundary and the impact on temps.
I made some minor adjustments to the numbers for both Tuesday and Wednesday. More adjustments are possible. One scenario would have the metro hitting about 78 to 80 Tuesday around noon and then falling into the lower 70s by 5pm. We could have a small shower or two across far northeastern OK as the initial boundary pushes south and then stalls. Wednesday morning we’ll go back into the warm sector with south winds with afternoon to midday highs in the lower 80s before the front moves southward by late afternoon with falling temps into the lower 70s and increasing storm chances for southeastern and east-central OK as the front drops southward.
Highs today will be in the upper 80s or lower 90s with the possibility of a record high in the Tulsa metro. South winds at 15 to 30 mph will remain likely along with sunshine and muggy conditions for October standards.
Temperatures Tuesday morning will be in the lower 70s in the metro and upper 60s across eastern sections of the state. A front will move across the area with highs near 78-84 and winds changing direction from the south to the north at 10 to 25 mph. Temps may drop into the lower 70s by late in the afternoon with north winds.
Wednesday a few showers or storms will be possible either across eastern or far southern OK. The chance for the metro will remain around 20%. Temperatures will be near 65 for the morning lows and near 79-84 for the afternoon high with north winds at 10 to 15 mph. Temps should drop into the lower 70s by late in the afternoon.
A second surge of cooler air will arrive Thursday with lows in the 50s and highs in the upper 60s along with north winds at 15 mph. Mostly sunny conditions are likely.
Friday the lows will be in the mid-40s. Highs will stay in the mid-60s with north winds and sunshine.
This weekend will feature lows in the 40s near 50 along with highs in the mid to upper 70s along with sunshine and dry conditions.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!