We’re looking at the potential for a few strong to severe storms near the area later this afternoon and evening. Most of them will be more to the northwest of the Tulsa metro, but a few could migrate into the area later tonight through Wednesday morning. This will be the 1st chance of a few additional chances for the rest of the week, including the best coverage (and chance) for a larger area Thursday night into Friday morning as the actual cold front sweeps across the area. Cooler, fall-like air will be likely Friday through the weekend, but summer-like conditions will remain for the rest of this week with morning lows in the 60s and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Strong south winds should also develop today across eastern OK.
The main upper level low is ejecting across the inter mountain region this morning and will soon be located across Montana later this afternoon and evening. Rounding the base of the long-wave trough, a strong jet stream will roar across the southeastern Colorado into southwestern Kansas region later tonight. At the surface, a dry line will be located across far western OK. Scattered storms will likely develop later this afternoon as the energy with this system interacts with abundant low level moisture and favorable wind flow to produce some thunderstorms. The deep layer shear (changing of wind direction and speed with height) will allow tilted updrafts and a few of the storms will be severe. The better coverage for severe storms this afternoon and tonight will remain to the northwest of the immediate Tulsa metro, but the chance is not zero for severe storms in or near our area. The main window will be from 6pm through the overnight hours, but Our best window will be from approximately 10pm to 4am Wednesday morning from highway 412 northward into southern Kansas. Before all of this occurs, there will be a chance for a few showers or storms this morning as a lead disturbance ejects into the state. Most of this activity will remain to the west of the I-35 corridor, but a few spotty showers or storms can’t be ruled out around Osage County into southeastern Kansas.
Wednesday through Thursday, south winds will continue at 10 to 25 mph bringing low level moisture back into the area. While the main upper level low will be positioned across Canada by Wednesday morning to midday, the broad-scale trough will remain to the west. This feature will not clear the area until either Friday or Saturday. The result will be warm and humid surface conditions for the rest of the week along with a few storms Wednesday and Thursday. But the better chance will be as the main trough nears the area Thursday night into Friday morning and the surface front advances southeast into the state. It’s too early to pinpoint exact timing for this period, but a few of the storms may also be strong to severe as the system sweeps across the area. It appears that most storms will be exiting the area by Friday morning to midday but clouds and north winds will keep the temps into the 60s and lower 70s for daytime highs.
This weekend continues to offer some varying solutions regarding the exact outcome but at this point we’re sticking with dry conditions until early next week when a slight chance of showers will remain.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!