Great Fall Weather Continues Across Oklahoma

Wednesday, September 28th 2016, 4:02 am
By: Alan Crone

Temps are not quite as chilly this morning compared to yesterday due to the influence of a subtle southwest wind remaining in the 5 to 10 mph range overnight.   Most locations will start in the 50s but will end in the mid-80s north and upper 80s south.   A weak “back-door” front will move across the area later today and this will re-enforce the cool-dry-and stable air mass across northern OK for the rest of the week.   Our next storm system should arrive either Wednesday or Thursday of next week.   But there may be a shower or two before hand across far northern OK Sunday night into Monday. 

The upper air flow is characterized by a deep trough across the Midwest through the Great Lakes.   A northwest flow is moving down the intermountain region through the central and southern plains today.   Much cooler air will invade the Missouri Valley later today and tonight but we’ll only get a glancing blow for northeastern OK.   This means Thursday and Friday morning lows will start in the mid to upper 40s for the metro with lower to mid-40s elsewhere.   Thursday afternoon has the potential to be the best weather day of the week with sunshine, light north winds, and blue sky.   The highs may easily stay in the lower 70s for the metro with mid to upper 70s across southeastern OK.   Friday the daytime highs should also remain basically in the mid to upper 70s.    I think Friday Night Football could be the 1st “jacket” game of the year.

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This weekend will feature some minor yet noticeable differences regarding the weather with morning lows in the 50s and highs reaching the upper 70s Saturday and the lower 80s Sunday.   South winds will develop sometime Saturday night and continue into early next week.   This will attempt to bring low level moisture from the Gulf back into part of the area.   This return flow will be weak at first but more noticeable by early next week.   The upper air flow may bring a fast disturbance near northern OK Sunday and could trigger a shower or two as the moisture returns, but the odds of this occurring remain very low and we’ll not include this mention on the big 7-day planner.

A better chance for storms will arrive sometime next week when a strong upper level trough will advance across the central plains and drag another stout cold front into the area.   There remain the usual timing differences between the models but the signals for increasing the storm chances for the middle of next week will remain.   The GFS is holding more of the trough back for a few days while the latest EURO run is more progressive.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone