First full day of fall today, but you certainly would not know it by the temperatures. Notice the max/min temperatures across the state today; at least there were no triple digits nor were there any triple digit heat index values due to somewhat drier air in place. Officially, Tulsa today had a max/min of 94/65 as compared to the normal values of 81/59. Much above normal temperatures will continue to dominate through the day Saturday before we finally get a break in the form of a cold front arriving during the morning hours of Sunday.
For tonight, fair to partly cloudy skies but a continued S/SE breeze should make for a warmer start to the day Saturday with morning lows expected to be closer to 70. As the day wears on, expect cloud cover to be increasing becoming mostly cloudy by afternoon and evening followed by cloudy to mostly cloudy skies through the day Sunday. Southerly winds will be a little gusty at times Saturday with winds expected to be on the order of 10-20 mph but shifting to northerly behind the front on Sunday and also rather gusty with winds of 15-20 mph at times.
Temperatures will be near 90 again for daytime highs on Saturday, but we finally get a break on Sunday. Since the front will not be arriving till after sunrise Sunday morning, temperatures will likely still be in the 60s to near 70 to start the day, but northerly winds and the lack of sunshine for the balance of the day is expected to hold daytime temperatures in the 70s.
That will be followed by even cooler conditions, particularly at night as we go into next week. As you can see on our forecast page, overnight lows generally in the 50s and daytime highs in the 70s rising back into the 80s by late in the week are expected.
This system will also bring a good chance of showers/storms for most of us along with the potential for locally heavy rainfall in some locations. Have mentioned repeatedly this week how the last several systems have not lived up to their promise with regard to the overall coverage of a good soaking rain. This coming system still has to prove itself, and as you can see on the 3 day QPF, there continues to be the potential for a good soaking. However, if you have been monitoring these projections you have probably noticed that the expected amounts have been dropping and the placement has shifted further west which suggests some of our more eastern counties may miss out on some decent rainfall. The severe weather threat appears to be minimal at this time, but cannot rule out a few storms with locally damaging winds and small hail.
As for timing, except for a few spotty showers that may occur at most anytime on Saturday, we are still expecting a more widespread coverage of showers/storms to be moving in from the west later in the day Saturday, through the overnight hours and continuing well into the day Sunday. Right now, the data runs suggest a few showers may linger into the morning hours of Monday for the more southern counties, but after that it looks to be dry. That is why I only used the 3 day QPF map, as our chances of rain should be tapering off by Monday.
Looking beyond that time frame, the 8-14 day outlook continues to suggest above normal temperatures. Normal daytime highs are in the 70s by then so the above normal temperatures should translate into 80s. As for additional chances of moisture, you can see there is a gradient from wet to dry across the state in a NW-SE direction, so we will see how that works out.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.