A weak cold front will approach northern Oklahoma by midday into early afternoon with increasing chances for scattered showers and storms across part of northern Oklahoma. Temperatures this morning are in the lower 70s and daytime highs will move into the upper 80s in northern Oklahoma and the lower 90s across Southeastern sections of the state. Dry air will filter in across northern Oklahoma behind this front allowing for a noticeable cool down Thursday and Friday, but south winds return Friday evening, and this will help to increase temperatures for the Labor Day holiday weekend.
A few showers and storms are persisting this morning across part of far northeastern Oklahoma. The cold front, is located across southern Kansas at this hour. This front will enter in northern Oklahoma near the Tulsa metro by midday into early afternoon with increasing chances for scattered showers and storms. Not all locations will experience the thunderstorm activity, but those that do will experience pockets of heavy rainfall, cloud-to-ground lightning, and the possibility of one or two storms producing down burst of damaging winds. The possibility of severe weather remains very low.
Most data indicate the showers and storms will migrate southward later this afternoon, but may persist into the late-night hours across southeastern Oklahoma and part of western Arkansas. Thursday morning a few showers and storms may continue across part of southern sections of our area, mostly along and south of the I-40 corridor region. Most data also suggest that dry air will filter and across Northeastern Oklahoma midday Thursday. This will act to give us slightly cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday with morning lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s and daytime highs in the 80s. The only wrinkle to our Thursday plan is the consistent signal in the EURO data of bringing a disturbance across the western part of the state Thursday morning with some precip. We have discounted this solution but will reserve the right to punt on 3rd down and increase the pops for Thursday if needed in subsequent forecast updates.
Southeast surface winds will return Friday night and this will signal a minor but noticeable warm Saturday, and a more noticeable warm up Sunday and Monday. Friday night thunderstorms should remain south or west of our immediate area, and this means Friday Night Football will be in good shape.
The extended Labor Day holiday weekend should support a mid-level ridge of high pressure building across part of our area. This means morning lows in the 70s and daytime highs in the lower or even mid-90s by Monday and Tuesday. One or two isolated storm cannot be ruled out, but the probability remains very low.
Most data also suggest that a strong storm system will near the Central Plains by the middle of next week, and this may drive a cold front into our area by late next week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!