Scattered Storm Chances Again

Monday, August 29th 2016, 4:13 am
By: Alan Crone

No major changes are expected to our pattern for the next several days. This will mean several chances for scattered showers and storms across part of northern and eastern OK with lows in the lower 70s and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  

The warm and muggy conditions are expected to remain this week. There will be some minor changes for some locations on a local scale basis as more cloud cover is expected. This will provide some short-term relief with some rain-cooled air for some spots the next few days.  

Another weak boundary may cross the area for the middle of the week and this may lower the max highs to the upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday. 

A weak area of low pressure is positioned across the coastal regions of Texas and Louisiana this morning.  There may also be a weak disturbance lifting northward near the southern Arkansas region.  This may be enough to generate some scattered showers and storms, even this morning, near or in part of eastern OK.  

Model data is more bullish this morning on this scenario but I’m hesitant to increase the pops too much from our previous forecast due to the expected scattered nature of any precipitation.  I’ll make a last minute game-time decision on the pop, but I’m leaning toward a 30% chance for the day.  

Tropical-like moisture remains across most of eastern Ok with dew point temps in the lower 70s despite a weak boundary draped across northeastern OK this morning.   Daily scattered storms will occur in some, but not all locations this week.  

Due to the lack of strong winds aloft, any storm activity that does develop will be slow moving yet highly efficient rainfall producers.   Severe weather is unlikely but one or two cells may produce strong down-burst winds in a very few instances.  

The mid-level ridge of high pressure currently to our east is expected to expand slightly this weekend.   This should effectively limit the storm chances to only an isolated mention Sunday into Monday and keep the heat and humidity in the forecast for the extended Labor Day Holiday from this weekend into early next week.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone