The overall pattern has not changed yet but will be changing the second half of the weekend as a ridge of high pressure will build over the state bringing hot and mostly dry conditions back to the region for most of next week. Before this happens, the upper air flow will remain from the northwest to southeast and should strengthen some in the next 24 to 48 hours. This will allow at least one and possible two convective storm complexes to move across the area beginning late tonight into Friday morning and possibly Friday night into Saturday morning. The tropical air mass combined with the stronger flow will promote the possibility of severe weather including damaging winds and some hail. Heavy rainfall will also remain possible in some locations. The exact trajectory of the system will determine the highest severe weather threat, and at this point, areas of western OK and north-central parts of the state may experience the higher threat.
Today a few showers or storms will remain possible before the higher chances will arrive later tonight. Most of the storms this morning are located across far southeastern OK but a few showers or storms will be possible across eastern OK for the next few hours.
Thursday is also an Ozone Alert Day for the Tulsa area.
Temperatures in the mid-70s now should warm into the lower and mid-90s this afternoon along with partly cloudy conditions and southeast winds at 10 mph. Heat index values today may reach 100 in a few spots.
The exact trajectory and timing of the possible storm system tonight will be refined with incoming data later today. But at this point, most data support a 7pm to 4am window for part of northern OK and southern Kansas. Temperatures Friday may be a few degrees cooler with lows in the lower 70s and highs around 90. If the atmosphere can recover enough, another storm complex will likely impact the area Friday night into Saturday morning.
After Saturday morning to midday, the slight chance of storms Saturday afternoon and Sunday will reside across far northeastern OK as the ridge of high pressure begins to expand across the state.
Temperatures next week will continue to climb above the seasonal average with lows in the upper 70s and highs in the upper 90s. Heat index values next week may approach advisory criteria with values near or slightly above 105.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!