Rain Chances Continue Before the Heat Returns

The spotty showers and storms of yesterday and today have been slow movers and therefore capable of dropping some locally heavy rains as you can see on the rainfall map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, as of this  evening.  But, given their localized nature, most of us have missed out; at least so far.  However, this unsettled pattern will persist for at least another couple of days with a few showers and storms extending into the evening and early night time hours tonight, then reforming during the day Wednesday, followed by another chance Thursday, Friday, and into the day Saturday.  So, for those who have not yet received a good rain, there remains that chance.

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That is evident on the 5 day QPF map which suggests the potential for several inches of rain which could easily fall in a short time frame.  Keep in mind this is an areal average over that time span and does not mean we can all expect that much rainfall.  Some locations could receive twice as much while nearby locations receive little or none.  Such is the nature of the scattered summertime showers/storms.  By the way, the reason for using the 5 day QPF is our chances of rain will pretty well shut off starting on Sunday and going into next week.

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At least this pattern is keeping daytime temperatures somewhat in check.  Notice the max/min temperatures for today and the absence of any triple digits.  However, the flip side of that is the abundant moisture also makes it very uncomfortable outside as heat index values have been at or above 100 during the heat of the day and that will remain the case in the days ahead.

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As you can see on our forecast page, we will continue to have very light winds each of the next several days along with little change in temperature except for the cooling effect if you happen to be under one of the scattered showers/storms.  In other words, more hot, humid, stifling weather conditions each of the next few days.

As mentioned above, by later in the weekend the rain chances will be tapering off which also means temperatures will start climbing again.  How quickly they climb and if/when we get back to triple digits is very uncertain right now as it depends on the extent of the rain footprint in the days ahead.  However, the pattern aloft will be changing again to one certainly supportive of another heat wave such as we experienced last week.  Notice the wind flow aloft at approximately the 18,000’ (or 500 mb) level this morning.  The dominant ridge of higher heights is well west of OK leaving us in a NW flow pattern aloft.  That is a more unsettled pattern and therefore the scattered showers/storms of recent days that will continue in the days ahead.

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However, that pattern will be changing as we head into the coming weekend and early next week.  In fact, this next chart shows the upper level pattern as forecast by Monday evening of next week.  Notice the upper level ridge will have repositioned itself over us by then which means the heat will be building going into next week along with little or no mention of rain.

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The 8-14 day outlook also supports a return to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall chances over that time span.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot