The data suggest storm activity that developed overnight across part of northern OK should slide southward and eastward with time through the early morning hours. We’ll play this one by ear and keep a decent chance for a few storms early this morning. But by the time most folks read this post, most activity will be sliding southward and weakening. We’ll keep a slight chance later today and tonight for a few pop up storms due to the abundance of available moisture and the weakly capped environment.
The upper air flow will remain conducive for bringing storm chances into the area for the next few days and these small disturbances will no doubt help to produce local outflow boundaries across the state. The model output continues to waffle with time and space regarding the highest chances and exact location and it’s very difficult to pinpoint higher locations in this environment. But we’ll give it a shot!
As posted here yesterday morning, we’ll keep a decent chance for storms in the forecast through the next several days but eventually will need one or two higher pops on the 7 day once the confidence increases for the best periods. At this point, other than this morning, another decent pop will be Wednesday night into Thursday morning and Friday night into Saturday morning as the upper flow becomes sharper from the northwest. Severe weather for most locations should not be a major issues but this environment can easily allow storms to produce damaging wet microbursts and pockets of heavy rainfall quickly.
The GFS seems to expand the ridge more eastward by the 2nd half of the weekend into early next week while the EURO is less bullish on this prospect. The difference would be hot and dry (GFS) vs not as hot with a few storm chances ( EURO). Our forecast will keep a mention for a few storms Sunday, but will give more credence to the building and expanding ridge vs the EURO.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!