That slight chance of showers/thunder for today obviously turned out to be an underestimate as the areal coverage of the rain we received was much more than what was forecast. However, the amounts were mostly on the light side as you can see on the rainfall map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.
A few locations received enough rain to settle the dust and the clouds through the morning hours tempered the daytime heating somewhat; at least enough to hold our daytime highs closer to normal. For Tulsa the max/min so far today has been 94/77 as compared to the normal values of 93/73.
Next question is will we be looking at a repeat performance later tonight? Once again, there is expected to be some showers/storms forming over the high plains for the evening and early night time hours which will try to make a run at us by early Wednesday morning. However, conditions do not appear very favorable for that activity to make it this far east so will only carry a very slight chance for a late night or morning shower/storm.
That means after some morning cloud cover, we expect to see more sunshine for Wednesday which will push our daytime highs back into the low-mid 90s and heat index values into triple digit territory once again. We will also have a gusty southerly wind all day long which will at least keep it from becoming too stifling. In fact, we will keep a pretty good south breeze through the overnight hours which means temperatures will not cool off much tonight as our morning lows will be in the mid-upper 70s to start the day Wednesday.
Thursday will also see a slight chance of morning showers/storms along with gusty southerly winds and another hot/humid day. But, later that day and into the overnight hours is looking more promising for some decent rainfall as you can see on our forecast page. A weak frontal boundary will sag a little further south to near the OK/KS state line and showers/storms are expected to become more widespread along that boundary late in the day and then move across much of Green Country that evening/night. Locally heavy rains will be possible with some of this activity along with a low end severe weather threat; primarily wind/hail. The 3 day QPF map suggests the possibility of several inches of rain for some locations. Keep in mind that represents an areal average, some locations could receive much more while nearby locations are dry.
We will have another shot at some showers/storms Friday night into Saturday morning and the mostly cloudy skies for Friday & Saturday should also hold daytime temperatures down somewhat. But, after that our rainfall chances will drop off into the slim to none category as high pressure ridging aloft becomes more dominant as shown in yesterday’s blog. That also means the heat will become even more widespread and oppressive for next week as you can see on the 8-14 day outlooks.
If we do get lucky and have a decent rain footprint from what showers/storms we receive later this week, then that will mitigate the extremity of the heat as we head into next week for a while at least. But, a pattern such as we are looking at for next week typically produces triple digit air temperatures, it just may be delayed a few days until things dry out again.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.