We're tracking a few showers and storms this morning across part of northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas. Organized severe weather is unlikely but a few gusty down-burst of wind will be possible, mainly in a few spots across southeastern or eastern Kansas.Temperatures in the 70s will move back into the mid-90s today along with south winds near 15 to 25 mph.
A few additional storms will be possible later this evening into Wednesday morning, but mostly across the far northern part of the state into southern Kansas.
A major upper level low will move across the northern high plains today and drag a surface front near the state during the next 36 to 48 hours. This boundary will more than likely remain north of the region but the proximity near southern Kansas will require us to keep a chance for a few storms in the forecast. This will be the case late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Model data suggest a slightly higher coverage will be possible Thursday night into Friday morning before the mid-level ridge of high pressure currently southwest of the area begins to expand over the area for the 2nd half of this weekend. This will effectively shut down the storm chances and bring the heat up a notch across the eastern third of the area.
An interesting development in the overnight data is a “wetter” signal for Saturday morning in some, but not all data. I’m reluctant to increase this pop as the ridge expansion should begin to force the boundary back northward as a warm front during this period.
We have yet to officially hit 100 this year in the metro but have been close with a 99 in June, and several 98s this month. If the data continues to support the expanding ridge, we'll be near 100 again Sunday into early next week.
The temperature heat index values are expected to be near or slightly below heat advisory levels again today. Our friends at the NWS will hold off any advisories at this point, but like yesterday afternoon, may issue one for later today upon observations of the interaction between temp and dews.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!