Oklahoma Rain Chances Increasing


Wednesday, June 29th 2016, 4:03 am
By: Alan Crone


Our weather pattern will continue to support a chance for a few isolated showers and storms today and tonight, but a higher probability will be arriving Thursday and Friday across part of northern Oklahoma. Temperatures this morning will start in the 60s and lower 70s and rebound with daytime highs in the lower to mid-90s. Slightly lower dew point temperatures are now noted across eastern Oklahoma and temperatures this morning will be pleasant for some locations.

The upper air flow will remain from the northwest to the southeast and this means the potential for some late-night and early-morning storms to arrive across part of Northern Oklahoma. This morning a cluster of thunderstorm activity is located across Southwestern Kansas and should survive as it moves into northwestern Oklahoma. We think the majority of this system will remain to the west of our immediate area. But a few additional showers and storms will remain possible today across Northern and Eastern Oklahoma.

WARN Interactive Radar

Later tonight storms will try to develop across the high plains and move south and east.  The TTU wrf is aggressive with some pops late Thursday morning to afternoon while other data is slightly later in the evening.   Regardless, Thursday and Friday we will continue to keep a rather high chance for showers and storms across part but not all of Northern Oklahoma. The temperatures may also drop a few degrees during this period with Friday supporting a temperature in the mid-80s for afternoon highs.

This weekend, our mid-level ridge of high pressure, is expected to expand once again across part of Northern Oklahoma. The result will be a west-to-east upper-level flow which may limit the southward progression of showers and storms. We will however keep a slight chance for showers and storms across part of Northern Oklahoma this weekend with morning lows in the 70s and daytime highs in the lower to mid-90s.   Locations across southern OK will have only isolated storm chances Saturday and Sunday, but could see a slight increase Sunday night with a possible complex nearby or west.

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The 4th of July holiday will start with a few showers or storms early Monday morning, but most of these storms should move out of the area by midday. The temperature on Monday will be into the lower and mid-90s with some sunshine and a south wind at 10 miles per hour.

The extended ensemble data suggests that temperatures will continue to climb next week reaching some triple digits while the operational data is more suggestive of mid to upper 90s becoming more likely by the middle of the week.   The trend will be for increasing temperatures and decreasing rain chances.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day!

Alan Crone