The forecast remains with a chance of scattered showers and areas of rain resulting in localized downpours. Ponding of water on some roadways will be possible. Southeastern OK and north Texas will see a flash flood watch remaining for the rest of the day into the evening. Temperatures today will range from the mid to upper 70s with a few locations in the lower 80s. Rain cooled boundaries will result in temperatures becoming locally cool for a few hours with lower 70s possible. Areas that do miss out on the rain will have highs in the lower 80s with muggy conditions. The main upper level low in Texas will continue to slowly move eastward and finally exit the area Friday night into Saturday with improving conditions likely for most of the area. We’ll need to keep some rain chances for today across northern and eastern OK and then rain chances will be mostly confined to southeastern OK Friday into Saturday morning.
The weekend should feature a few leftover showers early Saturday but these are not expected to remain long. Most data support a front moving across the area Saturday night bringing dry air into the state lasting for a few days early next week. As the boundary enters northern OK late Saturday night, a few showers or small storms may develop along the OK-Kansas state lien area. These will not last long. The result will be a five-star weather day Sunday with lows in the upper 50s and highs in the lower 80s along with sunshine and north winds at 10 mph.
Next week the upper air flow will be from the northwest to southeast, which is a normal flow for early June. This pattern can bring fast disturbances across the area resulting in late night and early morning storm complex’s driving down the plains into the state, but at this point, we do not see any major signals in the data supporting this type of weather. The GFS is starting to “ hint” at a small chance for Tuesday morning, but not enough to place a pop on the map.
We do see the upper air pattern flattening late next week with a small southwesterly flow nearing by Friday into next weekend. This should allow surface cyclogenesis across southeastern Colorado with south winds developing Wednesday through the end of the week. This will bring much higher low level moisture back into the area Thursday and Friday along with temperatures in the 5kft level warming considerably. The result will be readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s with temperature heat index values late next week nearing 100. The recent rainfall and extremely green vegetation will also tend to transport moisture into the lower atmosphere which will enhance the heat index values. Later next weekend a few showers or storms may be possible, but this is based on the pattern.
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!