More rain and storm chances will be needed in the forecast for the next few days including the potential for pockets of heavy rainfall across part of southern OK. Temperatures are expected to stay in the upper 70s near 80 for the next few days. A cut-off low across Texas Thursday and Friday will require us to keep some precipitation in the forecast through the end of the week. Pleasant weather is likely this weekend into most of next week.
A surface cold front is moving southward this morning and should be located across the Red River Valley before stalling later today. Northern OK will remain behind the front today with north winds, mostly cloudy sky, and a chance for some showers and storms. The higher likelihood for storm activity this morning eventually will reside to the south, but we should have increasing chances later today as moisture attempts to move up and over the boundary. A weak mid-level boundary near highway 412 may also be a focus for some early to mid morning showers or storms. A flood watch is posted for part of south central OK and may be extended into portions of southern OK later today.
The main upper air flow will bring disturbance across part of Texas later tonight and tomorrow, but this upper low will likely become cut-off from the flow for a few days. The data has continued to trend “more wet” with each run regarding northern and eastern OK Thursday and Friday. And we have trended with higher chances for showers and rain in subsequent forecast updates. The highest chances will be along and south of I-40 where precipitation will be likely but we have increased our chances for the Tulsa metro for this period.
Saturday may be the transition day. This means we may still have a few showers Saturday morning for part of the area before transitioning into some very nice weather by afternoon into Sunday. The upper air flow is expected to become from the northwest into early next week as mid-level ridge develops to our west and the upper flow from the northwest to southeast moves across the central plains. This is a typical pattern for early June, and right on schedule according to the calendar! This flow can and will bring small disturbances across the plains that can turn into big weather makers for part of the region. At this point, we do not see any significant signals for some northwest flow events, but later in the week the flow should become more active.
Temperatures have the potential to move into the upper 80s or the lower 90s by the end of next week.
Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a good day.