The upper air flow will remain from the southwest to northeast for the next few days with numerous waves of instability moving across the state producing periodic showers and storms. Some of the storms may be strong to severe. Temperatures will remain basically warm with muggy conditions and south winds at 15 to 25 mph through the week. The Memorial Day Holiday Weekend also appears unsettled with thunderstorm chances and warm conditions. Several complicating factors will be in the short term forecast regarding storm formation, timing, and location today and tonight.
Overnight storms formed a complex that moved across southwestern OK into southcentral sections of the state. Additional storms developed across north central Kanas and are now moving east and southeast. Some of these storms may continue to be strong to severe with damaging winds gusts and large hail the main threats. This complex may eventually turn southeast or an outflow boundary may also drop southward into northern OK late this morning into early afternoon. Later today additional storms are likely to develop across western OK and move eastward into the area by tonight and pre-dawn Wednesday morning. The threat for some severe weather including damaging winds and hail will remain with any of these storms.
We’ll plan on at least two windows of opportunity for storms today. The first would be late this morning into early afternoon, and the 2nd would be tonight from 9 pm to 2 am. I hesitate to offer timing for the first window, but most data would suggest between 11am at the earliest to around 3pm. But frankly storms could develop before hand across far northeastern OK into NW Arkansas. The prudent call is to keep a broad chance of storms for today and then again late tonight.
Wednesday, after the morning hours, we’ll more than likely get a break from most activity but some activity seems likely across far northern OK and southeastern Kansas during the predawn hours.
Thursday into Friday may end up with the highest chance of severe weather across central and eastern OK including the possibility of tornadoes as the main upper level system ejects from the southwest across the high plains of Texas into southern Kansas. Storms are likely to develop along the dry line to our west and southwest and move northeast into our area by afternoon and evening. Friday the system will exit the area but storm chances will remain into the weekend with a weaker upper level wave near the state. This would include the chances for storms into the Monday, Memorial Day period with warm and muggy conditions remaining.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!