Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warming With Some Rain On The Way

Friday, May 6th 2016, 4:04 am
By: Alan Crone

Temperatures are cool this morning as dry air and clear sky remain present across northern OK.   Readings in the mid-40s and lower 50s are likely before temperatures rise into the lower 80s later this afternoon along with another day of abundant sunshine.   The upper level pattern will be changing during the next 24 to 36 hours.   This will eventually bring active weather back to the southern plains, including the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern OK.

The midlevel ridge of high pressure is slowly losing its influence across the state as the surface ridge also moves south and east.   A trough of low pressure aloft near the Baja is moving northeast and will become established over the intermountain region within the next 24 hours.   As this occurs, a surface area of low pressure will develop and deepen across southeastern Colorado or southwestern Kansas with a dry line developing and trailing southward from the surface low.   This dry line will become the focus for scattered thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon and evening across far western OK.   Our chances for storms Saturday will remain very low.

Sunday, Mother’s Day, there will be an increasing chance of storms as the main upper level trough draws slowly eastward and the dry line also moves slowly east.   Warm air aloft (the cap) may prohibit upward vertical development for most of Sunday afternoon across central and western OK.   By late Sunday, the cap will more than likely weaken with the approach of some cooler air aloft and scattered storms will develop.   These will have the potential to become severe with all modes of severe weather possible.  

Monday morning, some storms may be ongoing early in the day before weakening with time across the northeastern third of the state.   Additional storms will be likely to develop Monday afternoon along or east of I-35 as the main upper level low begins to eject northeast into the central plains.   As the low moves away from the state, the dry line may or may not pass the Tulsa metro by Tuesday afternoon.   Yesterday’s data supported the dry air moving into the metro with Tuesday afternoon readings soaring to near 90 along with southwest surface winds.   Today the data suggest the dry line will become ill-defined or even retrograde westward by Tuesday afternoon.   Regardless, at this point, we’ll not mention any storm chances for Tuesday and adjust the highs near 88 for the afternoon.

Wednesday into Thursday, the upper level trough will positioned across the northern high plains, but some energy will move slightly southward across the central plains before ejecting eastward Thursday.   This will force yet a second area of surface low pressure formation across western OK or the high plains of Texas Wednesday.   Southeast winds will bring low level moisture back into the state with additional storm chances Wednesday afternoon or evening before the surface cold front finally moves southeast across the state ending the threat of storms.  We should have dry and pleasant conditions Thursday afternoon and evening.  

Our weather today will remain very nice with south winds returning at 5 to 15 mph along with sunshine and highs in the lower 80s.  

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone