As our peak severe weather month begins, we enjoy a nice break in the stormy pattern. March ended like a lion and April went out with a rash of damaging winds, hail and tornadoes. This past week brought more than a dozen (mostly brief) tornadoes to the state, most of which happened along the leading edge of a turbulent squall line Tuesday night. The tornado confirmations continue to roll in from the National Weather Service, the most recent report being a small tornado at Green Leaf State Park from that stormy night.
In the wake of the stormy and wet weather, we have a nice chance to dry out. Rainfall totals from the past week are shown above. It was enough rain to remove any drought concerns for our region and enough to bring up most of our lakes to a couple of feet above normal. We aren’t entirely done with the rain just yet. A weak upper disturbance will bring widespread clouds and spotty light showers tonight and into the day Monday. Most areas will remain dry, but don’t be surprised if you have to use that windshield wiper a few times.
Temperatures have dipped below normal this weekend and will remain on the cool side into the first half of this week. Through Thursday night, many spots will see lows well down into the 40s thanks to persistently dry air with light winds. After this upper disturbance pushes to our east, a dry, tranquil pattern takes hold. The jet stream will get very “blocky,” keeping other storm systems from moving in thanks to a blocking low pressure area over the eastern U.S. later this week as shown below.
Beneath the ridge of high pressure, temperatures will gradually warm, bringing our daytime highs back into the 70s and 80s later this week. It’ll be an ideal week outdoors, so be sure to take advantage! That deep upper level low in the Southwest will eventually bring back a stormy pattern. It could eject into the Plains as early as Mother’s Day, bringing the potential for strong to severe storms. However, some of our computer models hold it back until later the following week. The prolonged stretch of time without a stream of Gulf moisture into the area might limit the storm potential for the next big system. However, this time of year, it doesn’t take much shifting for the ingredients for severe weather to find their way back into Green Country.
The second full week of May will be wetter and likely stormier (as shown above in the 8-14 day outlook). We’ll enjoy this much-needed break while we have it! Be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page for the latest weather updates!