Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Next Storm System Soon

Thursday, April 28th 2016, 4:11 am
By: Alan Crone

The front that moved across the area late yesterday afternoon and evening will be positioned to our south today.   A surface ridge of high pressure will be the dominate feature with sunshine and north winds from 10 to 15 mph until clouds approach the area late this afternoon and evening.    Another strong looking upper level system in the southern stream will influence the state later tonight into the weekend with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances for some locations.   A few storms may be severe across part of the state Friday and possibly the eastern or far southeastern part of the state Saturday.   Highs today will be in the 70s today.

The next upper level system is developing across Southern California and will be moving eastward quickly during the next 36 hours.   A surface area of low pressure will continue to develop across the New Mexico region with pressure falls impacting the southern plains later tonight into Friday.   This will cause the front to our south today to begin moving northward as a warm front Friday.   The position of the boundary will play a critical role in determining the location of any severe weather potential for our area.  The boundary should be located across far southern OK late tonight into Friday morning, near the Red River Counties, with the true warm sector confined to north TX.   Locations along this boundary southward would have the chance of surface based storm formation late tonight into early Friday.   Locations north of the boundary and near an elevated front at 5000ft may still experience some thunderstorms that may produce some small hail.   The chance of severe weather in the Tulsa metro will remain very low tomorrow morning through midday.

Friday night a surface area of low pressure is expected to develop across the Red River Valley, possibly near southwestern OK, and will lift northeast by Saturday morning.   The warm front may lift northward to near the I-40 corridor region by late Friday night.  Locations along I-35 eastward and near the I-40 corridor southward may experience a few strong to severe storms Friday night into early Saturday.   If the warm front migrates more to the north, the severe weather threats would also expand northward.

The storm system will eject northeast away from the area Saturday midday with improving conditions by late afternoon across most of the state.   A pacific cold front will move southeast Saturday night bringing slightly cooler air to the state Sunday with northwest winds and highs near 70.  

The first few days of next week should be characterized by north winds and cooler air.   Most data support highs in the upper 60s near 70.    Data differs on the position of the next southern stream system.   The GFS is more bullish with rain chances by Monday, while the EURO remains more dry and more south with the wave.   Our forecast will side with the EURO.   We’ll only offer a low chance of showers for this forecast update cycle regarding Monday and keep Tue and Wed cool and dry.  

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone