Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Improving Weather

Wednesday, April 27th 2016, 4:09 am
By: Alan Crone

The storm system responsible for the active weather last night and early this morning is beginning to lessen its grip on the state.   At this hour, most thunderstorm activity is located across western Arkansas and will continue to moving away from our area.   The front has yet to clear the state and our dry line, while less defined, is still west of the area.   We should probably keep a slight chance of a shower or storm in the forecast today for eastern OK but the chances will remain very low due to the lack of forcing expected across eastern OK.   The clouds underway now will continue to move eastward and sunshine should become more likely today along with south winds shifting to the west around 10 to 20 mph.  The front will clear the area later today and be positioned across part of northern TX Thursday.    This will bring a very nice break in the pattern with lows in the 50s tomorrow morning and highs in the mid to upper 70s.  Highs today will range in the upper 70s for most locations along with southwest to west winds at 10 to 20 mph.

Yet another upper level system will develop and bring some rain and storm chances back to some locations across the state Thursday night into Friday as the front will retrograde as a warm front Friday into Saturday.   Some differences remain in the exact positioning of the surface features but a consensus of data keep the true warm sector south of the area Friday.   This means the severe weather threats will more than likely be confined to the southern third of the state into part of the Texoma region Friday.  Saturday the position of the front may quickly lift northward with a quasi-dry line-surface trough moving eastward by the afternoon.   This means we’ll keep a chance for some showers or storms for the Saturday morning period across northern OK.    By the afternoon, the chance for storms will be confined to the far eastern third of the state. 

Sunday into early next week most data bring cooler air across the central plains with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s a possibility across part of northern OK.   A few systems will brush the southern plains, but at this point, the main impact may remain across far southern sections of the state into Texas.   Therefore we’ll keep only low probabilities for any precipitation Monday and Tuesday despite the GFS being the outlier with high rain chances Tuesday.

Thanks for reading the abbreviated version of the Wednesday morning forecast discussion and blog.

Have a good day!

Alan Crone