Enjoy the Weekend, Looks Interesting Next Week.

Very pleasant day today with light northerly winds and after the cool morning start a nice warm-up this afternoon.  High pressure at the surface will be drifting on eastward which means we will have stronger southerly winds by Saturday afternoon and gusty southerly winds for Sunday.  That will result in warmer temperatures after a relatively cool night again tonight.  The clear skies and light winds for tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 50s to start the day Saturday.  Once again, we will have lots of sunshine during the day with just a few of those fair weather cumulus clouds and afternoon temperatures warming into the lower 80s.  By the way, the normal temperature range at this time of year is 74/52

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As you can see on our forecast page, temperatures will be running well above normal through at least the middle of next week.  Those gusty southerly winds will also bring abundant moisture back over the state which will result in more cloud cover for Sunday and the following days.  The extra moisture and the warmer temperatures also add up to a more unstable atmosphere which could result in showers and storms.  Current indications suggest a layer of warmer air aloft will provide a cap which will be difficult to overcome for the Sunday/Monday time frame.  However, if some storms can develop they would be severe and that would most likely be for the more northern counties the way we see things now.  As you can see on the threat graph, we have a low end threat of severe storms for the Sun/Mon time period but it goes up on Tuesday.

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In fact, Tuesday into early Wednesday looks very interesting from our current vantage point and the guidance has been consistently targeting that time frame with the potential for an outbreak of severe weather.   Keep in mind the system responsible is currently well out in the Pacific so there are lots of possibilities that are yet to be worked out.  However, the parameters certainly appear favorable with high instability in place, strong wind shear between the surface layer winds and the winds aloft, and a dryline/cool front coming our way to provide the necessary lift.

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Strongly suggest keeping a close eye on the weather next week  as not only does the middle of next week look very interesting but it looks like the weather pattern will reload in time for that following weekend with another threat of showers/storms, some of which will have the potential to be severe.  Not only that, but the longer range guidance continues to suggest a very active period continuing through the 8-14 day outlook period.  Bottom line is this is shaping up to be a very active pattern in the weeks ahead with periodic threats of severe storms  and this would be a good time to go over your severe weather procedures with your family members before those storms develop.

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So, stay tuned and check back for updates.  It could get interesting not only next week but into the following week as well.

Dick Faurot