The first round of heavy rain and storms has pushed through Green Country. Many spots were left with an inch or more of rainfall in just an hour or two! In the meteorology world, we call that a very efficient rainfall rate. It was enough rain to saturate our soils and will allow additional heavy rainfall to become quickly run-off, leading to a greater flood potential. That is our biggest threat in the coming days.
Another round is poised to move into Green Country later tonight and Monday morning. Due to the south-to-north steering pattern in the jet stream, this next area of rain will lift over the same areas for long periods of time. That training effect could lead to another 1” to 2” of rainfall. Since we have generally been so dry over the past few months, our reservoirs can handle a decent rainstorm. However, it’s the potential for flash flooding that is higher with any heavy downpours that occur for more than just ten minutes or so. This next round is likely to be our great slug of moisture over the area in the coming days, but the rains will be far from over as we head into the work week. The map below is a model depiction of the radar at midnight.
On Tuesday, a wave of energy will pivot around the slow-moving upper level low (centered to our northwest), drawing up more showers and isolated storms. While these may not be as heavy, our saturated soils won’t handle much more water at one time. Needless to say, it’s another day where outdoor plans need a back-up option.
By Wednesday, this slow-moving storm system finally starts to get kicked eastward. That will send a frontal boundary entirely through the region. This will be another focus for rain and storms during the day. A few storms in southern Oklahoma could be severe given slightly more instability. Many of us can count on widespread .5” or more of rainfall then. The map below shows the potential rainfall for the rest of the week. This comes on top of the 1” or more we’ve already seen, putting the grand total between 3” and 5”. We’ll be able to say so long to our developing drought across our part of the state.
Finally by Thursday, the clearing trend is on as the system pulls way. That should leave us with several days of glorious sunshine and nice spring weather all around. Our next storm threat may arrive late in the weekend, but the timing and severity of this system is still in flux.
Enjoy the rainy spring weather. The good news is, the severe threat is very low due to a lack of instability. It’ll be unsettled and a little too wet for some places, but not as bad as it can be this time of year. For the latest updates on the rain and storms, be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page.