Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Fire Danger West And Storm Chances East

Wednesday, March 23rd 2016, 4:13 am
By: Alan Crone

Strong south winds continue this morning in advance of a powerful storm system that is ejecting into the middle part of the nation. A strong surface area of low pressure will intensify from southeastern Colorado into central Kansas today with south to southwest winds across central and eastern OK from 20 to near 40 mph.   

A dry line and cold front will move across the area later today and tonight bringing a chance for a few storms across eastern OK.  Some severe weather will be possible.  The highest chance for storms will be along and east of highway 69 from 6pm to midnight.  

We’ll keep a slight mention for the Tulsa metro between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. today as the dry line approaches the area but the odds of storms in the Tulsa metro today will remain around 10%.

Low level moisture is increasing this morning across east TX and is making a run into southeastern OK during the next few hours. As the leading edge of moisture arrives, we’ll see mostly cloudy conditions and a slight chance of a few showers or sprinkles somewhere across southeastern or east central OK.     

Our better chance for a few storms will continue to hold until later this afternoon and evening across the eastern third of the state.  All modes of severe weather would be possible due to the expected shear and dynamic energy arriving with the system, but the lack of deeper quality moisture may inhibit the coverage of storms.  

Locations along and west of the metro will experience another critically high fire danger with Red Flag warnings more than likely required.   Winds will be strong with wind advisories required for portions of central and western OK.  The cold front will eventually catch-up with the dry line later tonight and sweep the moisture out of the state.   

Cooler air will arrive Thursday with strong northwest winds through morning hours before a surface ridge of high pressure settles closer to the state allowing wind speeds to relax. 

Friday morning will start in the lower to mid-30s along with a return of south winds at 10 to 20 mph.   Highs will move into the mid or upper 60s near 70 with mostly sunny conditions.

Another strong looking system will near the state this weekend but specific surface parameters support only a slight chance of storms Saturday as the cold front nears the area by the evening.   Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s Saturday morning will end with highs near 70.

Eastern Sunday additional rain chances will arrive, mainly post-frontal, with north winds at 10 to 20 mph along with much colder air.   Highs Sunday may stay in the lower to mid-50s with morning to midday rain.  

Monday will feature lows in the mid-30s and highs in the mid-60s.   Another strong looking system may near the state for the middle of next week.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather blog and discussion.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone