Mike Grogan's Weather Blog: March Coming in Like a Lion

It’s the last day of Meteorological Winter (running for the months of December, January and February) and it’s only fitting that we have incredibly mild air on this extra day of the season.  This will go down as the third warmest winter behind the 1931-32 and the 1991-92 seasons.

We seem to be already making that precarious transition from winter to spring, and it will come with spring-like storms later tonight.

A fast-moving piece of energy in the jet stream will slide over the state tonight and trigger strong winds just above the surface known as the low-level jet. These winds will transport the moisture and instability needed to spark storms after dark. Strong to locally severe storms will likely form near or just west of the area between 9 p.m. and midnight. The attached map shows a computer model depiction of those storms on Radar at midnight, centered along the I-44 corridor. While the surface air may be rather stable and cool, we could still see large hail forming in those storms and peppering the ground over parts of the area. 

We can’t rule out up to golf-ball sized ice chunks with these storms. 

There’s also the possibility these storms forming a bowing line, which could transport those strong winds above the surface down to the ground.  Thus, a high wind threat is also possible in the early morning hours of Tuesday.  Most of this rain and storm activity should be pushing east into Arkansas by sunrise.

Behind this cold front, arriving late tonight, will be very strong winds that may gust over 40mph. That means, the start of our Tuesday will be windy and chilly.  March will be coming in like a lion. Fortunately, most of the rain will be over for the voting hours on Super Tuesday. Thus, weather should not be a big factor in turnout at the polls.  Just be sure to bring warm clothing with you as you head out to vote because that wind will be howling with temperatures falling into the 40s during the morning.

Beyond there, our weather pattern looks fairly benign… at least for the rest of this week. Mild and generally dry conditions will prevail during the day with cool nights (a few of which may involve near-freezing temperatures). This will bode well as we head into the Bass Master Classic this weekend right here in Green Country!  I know Mr. Faurot is happy about this.

 Have a Happy Leap Day and be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook Page for all of the latest weather updates.