Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warm Temperatures This Week

A fast moving short-wave will zip across the central plains before turning the corner across the Missouri Valley during the next few hours.   The result will be another wind shift this morning from the southwest to the northwest.   Wind speeds will increase around 10 to 25 mph today.   A relatively low humidity during the afternoon combined with temperatures in the 60s, and dry vegetation, will keep the fire danger elevated across the state.   A warming trend will continue for both Wednesday and Thursday even though the exact magnitude of high temperature Thursday is unclear.   The fire danger could increase to near critical levels during this period, more so Thursday, as strong south to southwest winds from 20 to 40 mph will be likely.   The only limiting factor “may” be a slightly higher humidity (35 to 45%) compared to RH levels below 20%.   If the air-mass does trend dryer in the data, Red Flag Warning criteria may be met for many locations across the state.   The upper air pattern should bring another system nearing the state this weekend with chance for some showers or storms, but the chances will remain low at this point.

Temperatures this morning will start 40s across eastern OK with some clouds early this morning.   Highs this afternoon will top out in the lower to mid-60s with northwest winds around 15 mph to 20 mph.   Sunshine will be abundant after the morning clouds.  Wednesday morning should feature lows in the lower to mid-30 and highs in lower 70s. 

Thursday south to southwest winds will return at 20 to 40 mph.   Temperatures will begin warming across eastern OK with morning lows in the 40s and highs nearing 80 to 83.   Model data has trended lower in some of the data but we’re inclined to keep some of the higher readings for this forecast package.  Friday morning starts in the mid to upper 40s and should feature highs in the mid-70s.   Southwest winds will shift out of the northwest Friday at 15 to 30 mph. The fire danger will be high to near extreme by the end of the week across the entire state.  

A front will be nearing the state Saturday night and slowly moving southward during the day Sunday.   Some showers or storms will be possible near the boundary Sunday as it slowly moves southward.   We’re keeping the pops around 30% for Sunday, but will be higher across south-central and southeastern OK Sunday night. 

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV