Alan Crone Weather Blog: Strong Winds And High Fire Danger

Temperatures this morning will be seasonably cold with lows in the 30s. Highs this afternoon should be in the mid or even upper 40s east and south with some lower 40s far northeastern OK into southeastern Kansas and some upper 30s across northwestern Arkansas. Strong northwest winds at 20 to 30 mph will be likely today.   

Dry vegetation, low humidity, and the strong winds will create conditions for a very high fire danger this afternoon from noon to 6 p.m. Please refrain from burning and use caution to not start any spark that could ignite wild fires. Environmental conditions will be highly favorable for rapid fire spread today.  

A rather uneventful weather week will be in the forecast. But the exact magnitude of temperature, more so for the end of the week, will remain in question today.

A brisk northerly flow aloft is bringing colder air across the Midwest into the Missouri Valley that is circulating around a vortex located from Hudson Bay into the upper Midwest.  A few clouds will arrive from the northwest on occasion today but mostly sunny conditions should prevail for most of the area.   The exception may be extreme NE OK where more clouds may be seen throughout the day.

Data has not been consistent on the westward progression of the coldest air. Temperatures in the data for Monday and Tuesday have varied some 10 to 12 degrees in the data over the past several days.  And this weekend’s numbers also have some very wide variance.  We’ve settled upon a decent compromise of the model suggestions and will stick with some mid and upper 40s today through Tuesday with morning lows in the 30s.   

A westward nudge of even 100 miles would bring some very cold air into the state.  So yes, there is some potential for a temperature bust in the first part of the forecast.   

The upper air flow will be active again for the rest of the week with a few frontal passages late in the week but the lack of available moisture will keep the precipitation out of the forecast.    We should have a mostly sunny week for most of the daylight hours.   Highs today and tomorrow will remain in the mid to upper 40s.    

We may have a stronger system with some moisture availability by this time next week.

Thanks for reading the abbreviated version of the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV