February Kicks Off with Big Storm System

5 years ago today, Green Country was turning white as a record-setting snowstorm buried much of the region in over a foot of snow. Tulsa received 14” of it! The only thing we have in common with that weather scenario is the winds.  For us this past weekend, it meant heightened fire danger. 5 years ago, it meant blizzard conditions.  Thankfully, we face nothing like that going into the new month.

We do, however, have a powerful storm system coming our way as it gains strength over the Desert Southwest. The path of this storm system is favorable for our state, keeping us too far north and east of the severe weather threat and generally too far south to have any significant snow. I suppose snow-lovers are groaning again at another near-miss though. (Don’t worry, there’s still plenty of winter left).  This powerful system will bring about some gusty winds and the potential for rain and a few storms Monday night.  Instability is lacking, especially with the overnight passage of the cold front. However, heavy downpours and gusty winds are possible as a squall or two sweeps through the area starting after dark.  Any rain should be well to our east by sunrise Tuesday. The attached map shows the set-up for Monday evening.

While the path of wrap-around snow appears to stay north of the Oklahoma/Kansas line, the air coming off that increasing snow-pack will cause temperatures to tumble Tuesday afternoon (after a midday high temperature).  We can’t rule out a few flurries working their way into the far northern stretches of the state.  No accumulation is expected unless this storm system takes a significant shift southward.

Regardless of what the Groundhog says, it appears we’ll be in for some winter-like temperatures for a while to come. Following Tuesday, temperatures will be near or below average into the weekend. Northwesterly flow in the jet stream won’t allow much moisture to return. Therefore, any storm systems coming by the area won’t likely carry precipitation.  Aside from some temperature fluctuations, the weather pattern remains rather benign.  All the way out to Super Bowl Sunday, it’s looking cool and dry.  In fact, that pattern will likely be maintained, at least in a general sense, until about Valentine’s Day according to the Climate Prediction Center. Their outlook for temperatures and precipitation keeps us in the cooler and drier than normal realm into mid-February (see the other two maps).

Essentially, we’ll be getting a break from the onslaught of El Niño-related storm systems that carry lots of moisture in from the Pacific.  Once that pattern resumes, we’ll likely have about a month-long window where we could still see some wintry precipitation. While we can’t promise a big snowstorm, our greatest snowfalls tend to happen in the second half of winter when the jet stream is especially active overhead and before the door to cold, Canadian air is closed.  For snow-lovers, I don’t think our measly 3” this season will cut it.

Enjoy the one more mild day and be sure to follow me on Twitter: @GroganontheGO and on my Facebook page for the latest weather updates!