Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Fire Danger Concern Through Weekend

If it were not for the winds, and the associated grass fires, this would have been a very pleasant day, as most of us reached 70-plus degrees for the first time this year. In fact, Tulsa came within one degree of the record for this date as we topped out at 75.

Notice on the max/min temperature map that there was quite a temperature spread with 30s this morning and 70s this afternoon; the normal diurnal range is about 20 degrees to put this in perspective.

At any rate, there will be some changes taking place over the weekend. A wind shift line is moving across the state tonight and we expect to start the day Saturday with a light W or NW breeze. Fair overnight skies and dry air in place will result in morning lows, generally in the 30s again, but also generally above freezing.

As the day wears on Saturday, our winds will return to the south as that boundary becomes diffuse, we will have sunny skies and temperatures will soar into the 60s to near 70. The winds will not be quite as strong as they were today and temperatures not quite as warm either, but the much above normal temperatures and gusty afternoon winds will result in another high fire danger.

Another boundary will then push across the state on Sunday with gusty southerly winds all Saturday night ahead of the system keeping temperatures from dropping much. Then, the winds will be shifting to the N and still gusty Sunday morning. That should result in a near record warm start to the day Sunday, but the gusty N winds that afternoon will keep temperatures from warming too much, although still well above normal. The winds will still cause fire danger concerns as well.

That boundary will quickly become diffuse as a stronger storm system will be developing to our west Monday and pushing a much stronger cold front through the state Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Much above normal temperatures will prevail again on Monday, as you can see on our forecast page, followed by falling temperatures during the day Tuesday.

There will be a good chance of showers as the boundary moves across the state Monday night, and the falling temperatures on the back side by later Tuesday or Tuesday night could produce some brief snow flurries for the more northern counties.

Notice the 5-day QPF map which shows a stripe of heavy precipitation across KS. That will be mostly snow, so it looks like we will just miss out on what may become a significant snow storm for our neighbors to the north.

With an extensive snowfield on the ground just north of us, that means the air draining down over the state through the middle of the week will be colder than would otherwise be the case. In any event, look for much colder conditions through the middle of next week.

But, temperatures will rebound by that following weekend; and, at this point, at least there do not appear to be any more storm systems coming our way. That is expected to result in a more settled pattern to end the coming week.

In fact, as you can see on the 8-14-day outlooks, it appears that the more settled pattern will extend into that time frame, although temperatures may average at or a bit colder than normal for that time frame as well.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot