Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Warmer Next Few Days, Colder Weekend

Chilly day today, in fact, the coldest of the season to start the day here in Tulsa with a morning low of 21 and then the clouds moved in long enough to keep our daytime high from moderating much and the best we could do was 36 this afternoon.

As you can see on the statewide max/min map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, the clouds over the NE counties kept them much cooler than the rest of the state which at least made it into the 40s and even some 50s this afternoon.

Those low clouds pretty much dissipated by late in the day, but high-level cirrus clouds will be hanging around for tonight, and those cirrus clouds will then be thickening up on Tuesday which will impact temperatures once again. Right now, it appears we will be clear enough tonight for morning lows to drop into the low-mid 20s, along with a SE wind up around 10 mph to make it feel colder. The SE winds will pick up to 8-15 by afternoon but those high-level cirrus clouds should be thick enough to hold afternoon temperatures to the low-mid 40s.

As you can see on our forecast page, it could get interesting during the early morning hours of Wednesday. There will be a brief window of opportunity when temperatures will be near freezing, we will have a brisk SE wind to make it feel colder, and a disturbance aloft will produce overcast skies along with a chance of a wintry mix. Little or no accumulation is anticipated, but elevated surfaces could conceivably have a glaze on them, so just be aware of that possibility. Temperatures should be quickly moderating above the freezing mark, but the overcast skies will also keep us from warming much with highs again in the low-mid 40s.

Thursday will also be overcast with a good chance of rain and it will be just that, rain, as temperatures will be well above freezing all day.

Friday will be a transition day as a stronger cold front will be moving across the state, shifting our winds back to northerly by day’s end. Even so, Friday looks to be the mildest day of this forecast cycle as much colder air will be settling back over the state that evening and continuing through the coming weekend. In fact, daytime highs will struggle to get out of the 30s for Sat-Mon.

Not only will we have a return to much colder conditions, but the pattern aloft will support a number of relatively weak systems moving across the state. These do not currently look to be particularly strong but will provide some cloud cover and the potential for some light wintry weather on Saturday, primarily in the form of snow, cannot be ruled out.

Again, amounts will be very light but the possibility is there. In fact, the 7-day QPF map shows total precipitation generally less than an inch, but that will be primarily due to the rains we expect on Wed/Thu as whatever may fall during the weekend will be very light.

Now that we have finally cooled off, notice the 8-14-day outlook which has temperatures running below normal on average through that period. At least precipitation chances do not appear to be out of the ordinary during that time frame.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot