First Storm System of 2016 on the Way

2015 went out with a bang in Oklahoma. Record rainfall and floods with a little wintry weather thrown in rounded out an eventful year in weather here in the state. Fortunately, 2016 has offered a respite for the first few days from any sort of active weather. Seasonably cold air has finally settled into the region as high pressure keeps the pattern calm and dry.  However, El Niño is still a major force that will send more powerful storm systems our way this winter in the supercharged subtropical jet stream. The first in a series of storms will arrive midweek this week.

                Through Tuesday, it will be dry in Green Country.  Clouds will gradually be on the increase, but we’ll see little changes in the temperature department: 20s for lows and 40s for highs. On Tuesday night, moisture slides back into the area. Sub-freezing air will be pulling out of Oklahoma Wednesday morning, but there may be a little overlap where some of the precipitation falls either as sleet or freezing drizzle.  A few snowflakes couldn’t even be ruled out.  However, any sort of wintry mix will likely be confined to the pre-dawn Wednesday with temperatures hovering close to that freezing mark. A few slick spots may occur on a few roads, but it still looks like only a minimal impact on travel, if any at all.

                After Wednesday morning, it’s entirely a rain event for eastern Oklahoma. The first wave passes through Wednesday morning with very light amounts. The second wave Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be stronger. There could be a clap of thunder or a brief heavy downpour.  Fortunately, the movement of the rain will be fast and the moisture content in the atmosphere won’t be all that impressive.  This means rain totals will be held under an inch, and not likely to cause additional flooding.  The attached map shows the upcoming rain totals for the week to come.

                On Friday, a cold front arrives. This won’t be a major cool-down, but the weekend will be colder with temperatures falling back below freezing by Saturday morning.  A fast moving storm system by the weekend is likely to track south through Texas. However, if the track adjusts northward in the coming days, we could be in line to see a little wintry weather. For now, I’m going with a cold and mostly dry forecast with higher precipitation chances just to the south and east of Tulsa.

                Bitter cold air finally breaks off from the Arctic and rushes into the Lower 48 this upcoming weekend. The second map shows potential low temperatures by Sunday morning. Brrr!  We could see that frigid air head our way in a modified state by the following week, setting us up for a colder than normal spell mid-month. During El Niño seasons, this is a rarer event, which is why we haven’t had any major cold spells yet this winter.  Old Man Winter is making an appearance; it’s just been a delayed and haphazard entrance to the season.

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