Alan Crone Weather Blog: Welcome Back Sunshine

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Hard to believe we’ve entered 2016!    Now to the weather.

A few small areas of light fog may develop shortly after sunrise but will be short lived.  Lows in the 20s this morning will provide another chilly start to the day.   But we anticipate dry air will continue to move southbound across the region.  This will bring sunshine and wonderful weather into the state today.   Afternoon highs will be in the upper 30s north and the lower 40s to mid-40s across eastern OK along with light north winds and abundant sunshine.   The upper air pattern will be active to our south and well north of the state for the next few days.   Rain is on-going this morning across far south TX into southern Louisiana.   We’ll see increasing rain chances by the end of next week.

The temperatures this weekend should represent a minor but noticeable warming trend.   The lows in the 20s will move into the upper 40s and lower 50s this weekend along with light winds and mostly sunny sky.  

The pattern supports a major trough-vortex across Southeastern Canada into the upper Midwest with a southern stream system well south of the state across Texas and the Gulf Coastal regions.   A minor system will be located across the inter-mountain region this weekend.   The main forecasting problem for early next week will center upon how the models handle the flow and magnitude of the colder air with the Vortex to the northeast.   EURO is stronger and more south for early next week compared to other data.   So what does this mean for our forecast?

A weak boundary should slide across southern Kansas Sunday morning and may cross into northern OK for part of next week.   Some of the model data is offering different solutions on the magnitude of the air-mass behind the boundary and consequently the temperatures in the data have been trending colder for early next week.   EURO is much colder with 30s and 40s for highs while the GFS ensemble members are sticking with mainly 40s.    My confidence must remain low at this point, but we’re leaning toward more of the Ensemble approach compared to the usually superior EURO suggestions.   This means I’ll lower Monday’s highs into the lower 40s and remain in the 40s for the rest of the week’s afternoon highs.   EURO operational data would be colder.  I suppose we may end up punting on 3rd down and making some additional adjustments lower this weekend, but we’ll stick with the ground game and let it ride for now. 

The southerly winds should return Tuesday into Wednesday before the next wave brings a few showers near the area Wednesday night into Thursday.   The extract trajectory will still need some work, but it appears our chances will arrive Thursday.   A stronger trough will dig southward and may bring another stout winter-looking system across the state sometime next weekend.  

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

I wish you a great and prosperous Happy New year.

Alan crone

KOTV