Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Record Setting Temps Followed By Wet Weekend

In case you had not noticed, we have a story on newson6.com regarding the fact that 2015 is now, officially, the wettest year on record, statewide; and we still have the rest of December to go with another potentially very wet system that will be impacting much of the state this coming weekend.

Notice the 3-day QPF map, for example, which is valid through Sunday evening and which suggests another inch or two of rain likely for many locations, with locally heavier amounts possible further east and particularly into Arkansas.

That particular system will also have the potential to produce storms, some of which may become severe with primarily a damaging wind threat. Vertical profiles suggest a nearly saturated environment which will limit the instability, but very strong winds aloft could still produce enough storm organization for some to become severe.

Along with the threat of storms, some of the rainfall mentioned above could fall in a short period of time resulting in local drainage problems. The data coming in so far today suggests the timing of the storms will be more likely along or just ahead of the actual cold front, and the front is not expected to reach Green Country till after midnight.

If that verifies, that means the parades scheduled for Saturday afternoon and evening will likely be wet with rain and showers, but any thunder should hold off till after they have ended.

Between now and then, look for a mild start to Friday with morning clouds and a light southerly breeze keeping temperatures from cooling too much, and we should start the day in the 40s to near 50. Gusty southerly winds will quickly develop after sunrise which should thin out the stratus deck enough for afternoon temperatures to reach the lower 70s.

There may even be a few sprinkles for the far eastern counties, but the main rain event will hold off till Saturday/Saturday night as mentioned above.

Although we will be close to setting warm temperature records for Friday morning and again that afternoon, Saturday morning looks to be a lead pipe cinch as we will start the day near 60 with overcast skies and a brisk south wind. Gusty south winds and cloudy skies all day along with rain and showers developing should hold us to near 70 that afternoon, but that is also close to record levels.

The timing of the cold front for the early Sunday morning hours also suggests Sunday will start off much warmer than it will end as you can see on our forecast page. Although temperatures will be falling during the day, and there will be some lingering rain and showers, it currently does not appear that temperatures will fall enough for any wintry weather, so no travel issues are anticipated. The rain will be ending from W-E late in the day or that night.

Next week looks to be dry, although, another cold front will be arriving later on Tuesday. This system looks to be moisture starved so it will be dry, but it will also bring us back to the real world with temperatures below normal the first time in over a week. So far, the month of December is running more than 5 degrees warmer than normal.

Looking further down the road, the 8-14-day outlook continues to suggest temperatures will average warmer than normal and precipitation above normal during that time frame. The weekend before Christmas now looks to see a return to mild temperatures and it should be dry followed by another potential storm system early in the week leading up to Christmas; even so, the 8-14-day outlooks suggest nothing too extreme coming our way during that period.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot