Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Warmer Than Normal Weather To Continue

It just does not get much better than this at this time of year. Notice the max/min temperature map for the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, and you can see that after a frosty start this morning, temperatures rebounded nicely this afternoon. Those numbers will actually be getting warmer as the week wears on since no major changes in air mass are coming our way till over the course of the weekend.

The flow aloft remains dominated by what we refer to as a zonal flow or a W-E flow pattern which means the weather systems that do impact us are largely of Pacific origin. A weak boundary will try to make a run at us on Wednesday but only some high-level clouds are expected along with a very weak surface wind flow. A stronger system will be coming this way over the weekend bringing chances of rain and colder air, but there is still no evidence of an Arctic connection even then.

So, look for light southerly winds and fair skies for the overnight hours tonight and the southerly wind component should keep us from cooling off as much as you can see on our forecast page. For Tuesday, we will just have some high-level cirrus clouds and a S to SW wind of 8-15 mph which will push temperatures to 15 degrees or more above normal once again.

That pattern will repeat on Wednesday, although the winds will be generally in the light and variable category, with the weak boundary in the area.

Thursday will see light southerly winds once again along with some high-level cloud cover and temperatures continuing well above normal. By Friday, gusty southerly winds will result in even warmer nights and the afternoon highs may exceed 70 - some of the guidance brings us close to record levels on Friday which would be 76.

But, right now it looks like the high-level cirrus cloud cover will be optically thick enough to keep it from warming up quite that much. However, if those clouds turn out to be thinner than now anticipated, we could be threatening a record daytime high.

Brisk southerly winds and mostly cloudy skies could also put us in record territory for a morning low Saturday morning. As Saturday wears on, current indications suggest a cold front will be arriving late in the day. That will bring with it a chance of rain, perhaps even some thunder, followed by much cooler conditions for Sunday.

Currently, the longer range data runs are out of phase with one another regarding the timing and intensity of this particular system; so, instead of relying on one operational run, have utilized the ensemble data sets, which are more consistent and currently suggest at least a chance of rain showers for late Saturday into the morning hours of Sunday.

As you can see on the 7-day QPF map, the potential will certainly be there for some decent rains, particularly for the far eastern counties and on into Arkansas.

Also, using this approach eliminates any wintry weather potential for now, but this will have to be watched carefully as subsequent data runs may change that.

At any rate, even with the cooling behind the boundary, temperatures look to only be brought back to near normal followed by another moderating trend.

Notice the 8-14-day outlooks for temperature and precipitation for example which continue to suggest we will average warmer than normal and wetter than normal during that period.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot