Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Heavy Rain Expected Thanksgiving Day

Good morning.   Some spotty drizzle or a few brief showers will be possible today and tonight as low level moisture rapidly returns across the central and eastern sections of the state.   Temperatures in the upper 50s this morning will move into the mid-60s this afternoon along with gusty south winds at 15 to 30 mph.   A strong storm system will bring rain and thunderstorms to the area Thursday with much colder air flowing across the state from the northwest to southeast by Thursday night.   Some locations across northwestern OK may experience some light freezing rain Friday and Saturday.   Temperatures across eastern OK should remain slightly above freezing for the late night and early morning hours.  Locations from Bartlesville to Osage County to Pawnee county may experience a small window of sub-freezing temperatures Saturday morning allowing for light icing on elevated surfaces.

WARN Interactive Radar

The data continue to support increasing low level moisture with water values extremely high for late November.   This means showers and storms will be efficient rain-makers with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall a possibility for Thursday and part of Friday morning.   Flash flood watches will be required for part of eastern and southeastern OK for this event.  

We’re looking at two separate waves that will bring the precipitation in the state.   The first one starts later tonight and continues during Thanksgiving and exits southeastern and eastern OK sometime mid-morning Friday.   We’re probably going to get a short break Friday midday or so for a few hours with no precipitation.

The second wave with lighter precipitation will begin sometime late Friday evening and continue for most of Saturday.   This second wave will more than likely exit the eastern OK area late Saturday night or sometime early Sunday morning.   Most of Sunday will be rain-free.

Complicating matters will be a shallow modified arctic air-mass ( cold front) moving southward Thursday afternoon and evening.   This cold front will cross northwestern OK during the afternoon and enter the Tulsa metro Thursday night around 9pm to 10pm.   Much colder air will follow this front and spread over most of eastern OK late Thursday into pre-dawn Friday.   Temperatures Friday morning may start in the lower 40s and drop into the mid or upper 30s by afternoon.  The shallow nature of the air-mass means the leading edge may slow down or even stall across southeastern OK around the Jack Forks and the Kiamichi mountain areas of southeastern OK.    Locations southeast of this region could have temperatures 10 degrees warmer compared to locations to the north.    The Tulsa metro will definitely experience the colder air Friday through the weekend.

The coldest air should be positioned across north-central OK into western sections of the state where readings will be near or below freezing late Thursday night and Friday morning, and then again Friday night into Saturday morning.   The National weather service will include a winter storm watch for the possibility of some light freezing rain across northwestern OK for the time period.    Locations to the northwest of the metro may experience a small window Saturday morning with temperatures near freezing.   This would allow light icing on elevated surfaces including bridges.

Temperatures will be coldest Friday and Saturday with very little change from lows to highs.   Sunday morning lows in the mid to upper 30s will be followed by highs in the upper 40s with some 50s likely Monday afternoon.  EURO data brings a small area of showers across northern OK Monday afternoon, and GFS data brings some light showers back across southern OK Wednesday of next week. 

We’ll more than likely not see any sunshine until sometime next week.

Please remain aware of the forecast for the next few days. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV