Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Cold Start To Nice Weather Day

Temperatures are near freezing this morning and slightly below in some locations across northern OK and southeastern Kansas.   A freeze warning is posted for a few counties early this morning.   A surface ridge of high pressure will quickly move across the area today allowing for sunny and nice weather across eastern OK.   Daytime highs in the mid-60s along with light winds will be likely for the day.   Friday night Oklahoma high school football playoff games will be played in the 50s with some games dropping into the upper 40s by late in the 4th quarter.    We’re looking at another system nearing the area by the end of the weekend with increasing rain and storm chances Sunday night into early next week. 

Weather Alerts

The upper air flow will bring another disturbance near the state Sunday afternoon and evening and then another strong upper level low will near the state Tuesday into Wednesday.   Rain and thunderstorm chances will be increasing during these periods with the threat for some moderate to heavy rainfall across part of eastern OK and northeast Texas by Tuesday.   Strong dynamics are expected with the system Monday into Tuesday but the deep moisture and warm sector area may remain slightly south of the Red River.   This means the severe weather threat may also stay slightly south of the state, but it may still be rather close.   This morning’s data supports lower 60 dews adverting into southeastern OK along with extremely strong winds aloft.  We’ll need to monitor the data closely as we draw closer to early next week.

The weather today should be great.   The surface ridge of high pressure will allow sunshine, light winds, and cool temperatures.   Surface winds will rotate around the ridge and eventually be from the south by later this afternoon but will remain light in speeds.

Saturday morning to midday the pressure gradient will begin gaining strength as the next upper level wave nears the state.   South to southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph will be possible by midday to late afternoon.   Combined with dry vegetation and relatively dry conditions, the fire danger will become elevated by Saturday afternoon.  

Sunday increasing clouds will begin early in the morning and may result in light showers or drizzle overrunning the region from the southwest to northeast during the day.   This should result in highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s along with very strong south winds at 20 to 30 mph.   Sunday evening the stronger winds aloft will reach the western third of the state and some rain with a few thunderstorms should develop across part of Texas and spread east and northeast into eastern OK.   We’ll more than likely have a dry period from Monday midday to early afternoon as this first wave exits the area.   Highs Monday should be into the lower to mid-60s along with gusty south winds at 20 to 30 mph.

Monday night into Tuesday the main upper level low will move near the state and storm chances will ramp up.   Severe weather will be likely Monday evening across Texas and could possibly eastern OK.   If the warm sector expands more northeast than expected, the severe weather threat would extend into eastern OK.  This morning’s data does support a slight jog northward of some of these severe weather parameters.

Rain and storms with heavy rainfall will continue into early Tuesday morning before moving east and northeast away from the state by the afternoon.   GFS wind data support south winds from 20 to near 40 mph during the day.   Temperatures Tuesday could reach the upper 60s or even a 70 degree reading before the colder air arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  

 The EURO data now brings the cold core upper low over northern OK and south-central Kansas area Tuesday night into Wednesday but keeps any wrap around moisture across far northwestern OK and southwestern Kansas.   The GFS is more northward this morning with this feature.   A lower confidence remains for this time period, but at this point, the chance for Wednesday morning percip appears very low.   Temperatures will drop Tuesday night into Wednesday as the cold core passes near the state.   Highs in the mid to upper 50s will be likely Wednesday.  

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone
KOTV