Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Chance For Strong Storms Across Oklahoma

A powerful upper level system will rapidly move across the southern and central plains during the next 24 to 36 hours bringing a chance for a few storms to the area Wednesday morning to midday along with very windy conditions.   If storms form and can become mature, severe weather is possible.   The coverage of thunderstorm activity may remain limited due to the late arrival of surface moisture.   This system will quickly exit the state Wednesday morning to midday taking the threat of severe weather out of Oklahoma rather quickly.   Mild and uneventful weather will occur until Sunday when another weaker storm system will approach the area with rain and thunderstorm chances.

WARN Interactive Radar

Temperatures are mild this morning with many locations into the upper 40s and lower 50s.   The main upper level trough currently on the west coast is digging southward and will soon rapidly advance eastward.   Significant snowfall is likely today in the Rockies as this system gains strength.   A surface area of low pressure will develop across western Colorado this afternoon.   South winds will develop in response to this approaching system and increase speeds from 15 to 25 mph by midday to afternoon.   Daytime highs in the lower 70s are likely today along with mostly to partly sunny conditions.   Dew points in the upper 50s and lower 60s will quickly surge northward into the state later tonight and pre-dawn tomorrow as the storm system advances into western OK. 

A powerful upper level jet streak nearing 110 knots will race across northwestern OK Wednesday morning to early afternoon while the surface low will quickly move across central Kansas northeastward into the Midwest while deepening.   Very strong surface winds will develop as this low pressure area migrates through the plains.  

The dry line feature will race eastward Wednesday morning approaching the I-35 corridor region by 7am.   Despite the morning arrival, any storms that can form Wednesday morning (and become mature) could produce severe weather.   The model data is rather anemic regarding the development of precipitation.   Wind speeds may be too strong and could disrupt the development of mature updrafts during the early developmental phase early Wednesday morning.   But storms are expected to develop in some locations of eastern OK tomorrow with this system. 

Because of these factors, we have lowered the chances for thunderstorm development compared to yesterday for the Tulsa metro while keeping the same probabilities for locations along and east of highway 69.   Please remain aware of your weather surroundings for the early hours of Wednesday as this potent storm system moves across the state.   The main window for storms will be from 2am to 1pm across eastern OK.   The metro window will be from 3am to 9am, southeastern and east-central OK from 6am to noon, and extreme eastern OK from 11am to 1pm.   This system should be exiting the state around 1pm to 2pm. 

As the storm system is lifting northeast away from Oklahoma very strong pressure gradient winds are expected to develop.   West and northwest winds from 20 to 35 mph will be likely with some gusts nearing 45 mph.   A wind advisory may be required for a few hours tomorrow due to the strong wind.

Locations across extreme north central OK into south-central Kansas may experience winds near 50 to 55 mph for a few hours.    A high wind warning may be required for these areas Wednesday for a few hours.

Another weak front will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning with gusty north winds and a few clouds.   No precipitation will occur.

The next system will approach southern Ok and north TX Sunday into Monday with increasing rain and storm chances northward into the Sooner State.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone
KOTV