Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Increasing Storm Chances

A powerful storm system will quickly move across the southern and central plains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning bringing a chance for thunderstorms to eastern OK and western Arkansas.  If moisture can sufficiently return before the system arrives, the threat for severe weather will be increasing across eastern OK.  

Weather Alerts

Temperatures will remain cool today with highs in the lower to mid-60s.   South winds will be increasing today in advance of the system and will be very strong Tuesday with south winds at 20 to 30 mph.   Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the lower 70s and south winds from 20 to 25 mph.   Winds behind the departing system Wednesday midday to afternoon will be from the west and northwest and may exceed 40 mph for a few hours.   A wind advisory may be required Wednesday.    The remainder of the week appears cool and dry with another system nearing the southern plains and Oklahoma by late in the weekend.

Data has been very consistent for the past few days regarding the approaching storm system for Wednesday.   A powerful upper level trough currently near the Pacific Northwest will rapidly drop southward and move across the state Tuesday night into Wednesday morning while gaining strength.   A jet streak from 90 to near 110 knots will scream across the northwestern Oklahoma Wednesday morning.   Strong low level winds are also anticipated across the region with a deepening surface low pressure center migrating across Kansas.   A cold front will extend southward from the surface low and quickly race across western and central Oklahoma early Wednesday morning.   The cold front will be passing the Tulsa metro after sunrise and before noon while exiting eastern OK shortly afterwards.   Despite the typically unfavorable time period of early morning, the threat for strong to severe storms cannot be discounted due to the extremely strong wind fields with this system.   Moisture is expected to be marginal and instability low.   If this system slows down a few hours and doesn’t cross until late Wednesday afternoon or evening the severe threat will be increasing.   If the moisture return is higher than currently depicted by the data the severe weather threat will be increasing.   At this point, a slight risk of severe weather will be advertised including the possibility of rotating thunderstorms with hail and wind damage potential.   The wind shear may be so strong that initial updrafts may be disrupted during the initial development.   But some storms are expected to develop near the eastern third of the state with this system.   The system is very strong and we’ll need to mention the possibility of severe storms with this system.  We’ll attempt to refine the timing and exact threats over the next 36 hours.

The pressure gradient behind the departing surface low will be very strong for a few hours Wednesday with west and northwest winds advancing across the northeastern quadrant of the state from 20 to 45 mph.   Extremely dry air is forecast to follow the frontal passage and the fire danger will increase directly behind the front by afternoon despite any meager precipitation that may occur with the actual frontal system.  

Temperatures will drop to near seasonal levels with morning lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s and highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s for the remainder of the week.   A southern stream system should approach the state late Saturday night into Sunday with a chance for some showers. 

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great day.

Alan Crone

KOTV