Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Rain, Cooler Weather On The Way

Almost hate to make too big a deal of the rain potential later this week, as I am afraid I will scare it off, but it sure looks promising at this point in time.

For several days now, we have been keeping a close eye on an upper-level storm system which is now located over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico. As is usually the case with systems in that location, there are some uncertainties that will not be completely resolved until it gets into a better data sampling location. Even so, the data so far has been consistent in bringing a wide swath of moisture across the state with the potential for some locally heavy rainfall.

Wednesday will be a day ahead of the main system, so look for more cloud cover during the day - including first thing in the morning. That means a mild start with morning temperatures around 60, along with a S to SE wind. By the way, those winds will not be as strong during the day either with wind speeds generally less than 15 mph, which, together with higher humidity levels, will mitigate the fire danger considerably.

Daytime highs will be around 80 again, along with partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.

Rain will be spreading from W to E on Thursday, starting in the western portions of the state and reaching this side of the state that night. The rains will be widespread for the Thursday night into the morning hours of Friday and gradually spreading on eastward during the day. We may get lucky and have a bit of a break in time for the Friday night football games, but that is by no means certain at this time.

The main surface boundary looks to be arriving on Saturday, so will maintain a decent chance of lingering showers through the day Saturday. Some residual moisture and energy aloft may also produce a few showers into the day Sunday as well.

As you can see on our forecast page, am not currently calling for any more showers going into early next week, but that is subject to change. The longer range guidance is not consistent by that time frame with the ECMWF basically dry and the GFS showing showers reforming again. For now, will take a conservative approach and keep early next week dry.

Again, referring to our forecast page, you can see we will also be much cooler for the weekend and into next week.

Now for the important part, how much rain may we get out of this system? I have chosen to only use one map this time around to emphasize the rainfall potential for this storm system based on current data. As you can see on the 7-day QPF, the heaviest rains are expected to be west and south of Green Country, but even so, we stand to get a good soaking by the time it is all said and done.

Keep in mind, this map represents an areal average, so some locations could easily get much more, and nearby locations much less.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot