Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Quiet Weather Pattern

The front that came through this morning certainly gave us nice break in the heat from yesterday, as you can see on the 24-hour temperature change map. It also brought with it at least some rain, but the amounts were generally on the light side, with most locations only receiving enough to settle the dust.

However, there were a few lucky folks that received a decent soaking, as you can see on the rainfall map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Unfortunately, those amounts will not do anything to alleviate the developing drought situation as mentioned in yesterday’s blog.

In fact, notice the rainfall totals since Jul 10, which is basically when the rains turned off, particularly for the more southern counties. According to the good folks at the OK Mesonet, that is the third driest on record for those dates in SE OK. Interestingly, that came on the heels of the wettest Apr 1-Jul 9 on record for those folks.

As for our prospects regarding any moisture over the course of this forecast cycle, as you can see on the 7-day QPF map, we will be high and dry. There will be several weak fronts moving through the state over that time period, but all indications currently suggest they will be moisture starved.

So, that leaves us with, primarily, a temperature forecast for the days ahead, and there will be some day to day variations, but the systems over the course of the coming week look to be rather benign. The cooler, drier air that moved in behind today’s cool front will give us a cool start to our day for Saturday with many locations in the 40s. Sunny skies and light winds will quickly warm things well into the 70s that afternoon.

Sunday will be the warmest day of this cycle with an S or even a SW wind component, lots of sunshine, and daytime highs near 90.

Winds shifting to northerly Monday morning will knock temperatures back for Mon/Tue, but we will still be above normal. In fact, as you can see on our forecast page, above normal temperatures will be the general rule each day for this forecast period. Normal at this time of year is mid 70s during the day and lower 50s at night. The drier air in place will give us some nights that will be cooler than normal, but the abundant sunshine and lack of any really cool air at the surface will allow for the warmer days.

Bottom line is, a quiet weather pattern with some weak cool fronts passing through from time to time, no mention of rain, and temperatures averaging above normal for this time of year. That pattern will likely extend well into the following week as well according to the longer range guidance.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot