Warming Trend Before A Friday AM Front

Wednesday, October 7th 2015, 3:54 am
By: Alan Crone

Temperatures this morning will move from the mid and upper 50s into the lower 80s this afternoon and also tomorrow before another cold front enters the state Thursday night and Friday morning.  This front will bring a few showers or storms to part of southeastern Kanas and extreme northern OK but many locations will miss out on the precip.   Temperatures will cool modestly into the mid-70s for Friday afternoon highs.   Friday night football appears dry and cool with games starting and ending in the 60s.

This weekend also appears pleasant but a warming trend will be likely with highs Sunday into the upper 80s.  A series of fronts will move across the state next week but the odds of significant precipitation will remain extremely low.  

The main upper air flow will keep most of the major systems away from the state.   A cut-off low located across the southwestern U.S. will move east before moving southward into the Mexican Plateau region Friday and then retrograding to near the Baja early next week.   The northern stream will feature several fast moving waves but most, it not all, of the forcing will remain north of the state.   A weak cold front will enter northwestern Ok late Thursday night and move southward Friday morning with a few showers or storms near and behind the front.   Severe weather is not expected but a few thunderstorms may occur.   This front should move southward of the metro by Friday morning allowing for northeast winds and mild afternoon weather for Friday and Saturday.   Saturday morning lows will drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s with highs into the upper 70s north and a few lower 80s south.   The forecast for the DFW area Saturday morning for the OU-Texas game supports temperatures in the 70s warming into the lower 80s by the end of the game.   No rain is expected.    Our weather pattern will quickly bring warmer air back to the state Sunday.   A southwest surface wind combined with increasing temperatures in the 5K ft. level of the atmosphere are both suggesting highs nearing 90 Sunday.   Several weak frontal intrusions are likely next week but no major air mass changes are anticipated.   Yesterday’s GFS data has already changed compared to the incoming data late last night and this morning.   It’s now coming on-board with the EURO in suggesting a front crossing the area Monday.   This will bring temperatures down into the lower or mid-80s but no rain is expected.

Temperatures next week may, at times, oscillate in the 80s for highs but no major temperature swings will occur.    At this point, there are no major cold air intrusions heading in our direction.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone