Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Minor Warming Trend Underway

Tuesday, October 6th 2015, 4:05 am
By: Alan Crone

Our main forecast challenge will revolve around a cold front that should move into the area Thursday night or Friday morning with a chance for a few showers or storms.   Temperatures behind the boundary will remain mild with lows in the 50s and highs in the mid-70s Friday and near 80 Saturday.   Sunday into early next week may also feature a robust warming trend with upper 80s and a few lower 90s before a stronger system nears the region by the middle of next week.

Temperatures remain cool this morning.   Most locations have dropped into the lower and mid-50s with a few areas of patchy fog.   The weak system that brought clouds and some sprinkles to eastern OK yesterday is well northeast of the state this morning but some additional clouds may be possible for the early morning hours.   Our weather pattern should allow relatively warmer air today.   Daytime highs in the mid or upper 70s will be likely along with east to northeast winds for the first half of the day around 5 mph.   Winds should back from the southeast later tonight and remain out of the south until the front moves across the area Thursday evening.  Until this front passes the area a minor warming trend will be underway for the state.

The pattern will support an upper level system nearing the desert southwest during the next 48 hours.   Most, it not all data, support this system stalling and moving southward across the Mexican Plateau region by the end of the week and then retrograding to near the Baja early next week.   The northern stream will see a system moving across the northern third of the nation soon and this will help to push a surface cold front southward into the state by Thursday.   The moisture pooling along and ahead of the boundary does not appear to be sufficiently deep enough for a big chance for showers and storms, but we have continued to keep a 20% chance of storms in the forecast with this system.   The best timing at this point seems to be late Thursday evening and pre-dawn Friday.   Most data suggest the front will be along the Red River or into the North TX area by Friday night allowing Friday evening activities, including football games, to be rain free.

The weekend also appears to be in good shape with the current timing.   Lows in the 50s will be followed by Saturday highs near 80.   A southwest surface wind and increasing temperatures in the mid-level of the atmosphere should allow daytime highs in the mid or upper 80s Sunday.   We may see a few lower 90s early next week.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone