Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Great Fall Weather Weekend

Friday, October 2nd 2015, 4:05 am
By: Alan Crone

Temperatures will remain very fall-like for the next few days with morning lows in the 40s and daytime highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.   Portions of the state will experience some showers and thunder today and Saturday, but these areas should remain across western to possibly nearing central OK.   We’ll continue to keep the forecast dry for our immediate area with only a slight mention for a few showers or sprinkles Saturday afternoon and evening along the I-35 corridor region.   The pattern will undergo a change early next week with a stout looking upper level system ejecting into the central plains Thursday. 

Temperatures are cool this morning and should be a few degrees cooler for the weekend morning lows.   Many locations, including the Tulsa metro, will drop into the upper 40s this morning with mostly clear sky and light northeast winds.   Showers and storms will develop this morning along the OK and western Texas State line region and slowly move eastward into the far western third of the state.   These showers and storms will remain well west of the area today but later tonight a few clouds associated with this activity will begin moving into our area.   We’ll experience mostly sunny conditions for most of the day with a few clouds later tonight.  

Saturday morning additional showers and storms are likely to occur across the northwestern part of the state into western Kansas as a mid-level disturbance moves eastward and northeast into the central plains.     A mid-level ridge is expected to expand northward across central Texas into central OK by midday.   As the showers move eastward, they should encounter the sinking air and eventually dissipate before entering the northeastern part of the state.   Debris clouds will filter eastward through the day with partly cloudy conditions for the afternoon.   Saturday morning lows in the lower 40s will be followed by highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s along with northeast winds around 10 mph.

WARN Interactive Radar

Sunday the lows in the lower to mid-40s will be followed by highs in the lower 70s as the upper air pattern begins to change.   The flow will become from the west and eventually the southwest as another pacific trough develops off the coast.   This stout looking system in the data will eject across the southwest and move across the central plains Wednesday evening into Thursday according to the GFS but would dive southeast into Mexico according to the EURO.  The GFS solution would bring storms into the area Wednesday night and Thursday.   This GFS solution would bring a front across the eastern OK area Thursday afternoon and evening with increasing storm chances.    The expected moisture and wind profile would warrant a mention of strong to severe storm formation.    As the front clears the region Thursday evening into Friday morning noticeably cooler air will quickly move into the state.   The EURO would bring a few showers and storms into the western part of the state with warmer air invading northeastern OK through the end of the week.   We’ll keep slight mentions for a few showers and storms Thursday with a minor cool down at this point.   Changes will no doubt be needed to this time period due to the lack of any run to run consistency in the data.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone