We’re tracking a front that will arrive by the middle of the week. The upper air pattern will transition to a more active flow late this week into the weekend. This should bring some increasing rain chances and much cooler air to the state.
The mid-level trough located across southeast Texas will slowly move northeast today and tomorrow providing a few showers and storms from northeast TX into southeastern OK. Almost all of this precipitation will remain southeast of our area of concern but a few isolated showers or storms may move into Pittsburg to Leflore County and locations southeast of this line this afternoon and evening. Tuesday a few showers may also occur in this same area. We’ll keep the forecast dry for the Tulsa metro and surrounding northeastern OK area for the next few days.
The upper pattern will allow a front to near northern OK sometime Wednesday. This front may slide southward across the area with northeast winds and slightly cooler air Wednesday and Thursday. The upper air flow will transition to a northwest flow pattern Thursday and Friday bringing a disturbance down the central plains both days. Operational data support these storms remaining slightly west of the area, but we’ll need to watch closely for any deviations eastward that would bring these storms in the area. I have included pops for both Thursday and Friday, and lowered the highs to account for more cloud cover at times. This will place highs Thursday in the upper 70s and Friday near 75. This morning the data is now converging on a cooler solution for most of the state this weekend. Both GFS and EURO bring a wave atop the region Saturday with increasing rain chances. The warm sector now appears to remain south of the state and this means cooler air for the weekend. We’ll keep lows in the lower to mid-50s and highs in the 60s, but Model Output suggest some upper 40s are possible for part of NE OK this weekend and highs in the lower 60s. Stay tuned for updates. We may have some nice fall-like temperatures across the state this weekend.
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Have a super great day!