Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Fall Has Arrived, But Not Fall-Like Weather

Wednesday, September 23rd 2015, 9:34 pm
By: News On 6

Hello autumn - at least according to the calendar - would not know it from our current weather pattern, though.

Notice the max/min temperatures across the state and the above normal temperatures that occurred again today and have been the case all this week. More of the same will be the general rule right on through the coming weekend and well into next week with no major changes currently foreseen during this forecast period.

So far, the month of September is running almost 3 degrees warmer than normal, and, as you can see on our forecast page, above normal temperatures will prevail right on through the end of the month. Keep in mind that our normal max/min temperatures for Tulsa drop to 78/56 by the end of the month and that does not appear very likely.

Having said that, at least we have some drier air in place, with dew point temperatures running in the 50s right now, which means the humidity levels will be more comfortable as relative humidity will drop to near 40% or less during the heat of the day. That drier air also means our nights will be somewhat cooler, with lower 60s as a general rule, and perhaps some of the outlying rural valleys in the 50s for the next few mornings. A contributing factor to the drier air in place is a light E to NE wind for Thursday, Friday and into the day Saturday.

A weak system continues to impact the far western counties with chances of showers - and a few of those may make it just E of I-35 over the next day or two. For the most part though, the only impact from that system for E OK has been some high-level cirrus clouds hanging around, and that should continue to be the case.

As we head into next week, our winds are expected to be more southerly for at least the first part of the week keeping the above normal temperatures in place. Later in the week, there will be several systems that could have an impact on our weather and there is not a lot of consistency with regard to the longer term solutions.

One possibility is a tropical system impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico could bring more moisture our way resulting in at least a chance of showers late in the week, along with easterly winds knocking temperatures down somewhat. There are also some indications of a weak front that could move this way. For now, will just call for a slight chance of rain and drop temperatures back somewhat just in time for the Tulsa State Fair.

As you can see on the 7-day QPF map, not a lot of rain is anticipated through that forecast time frame for E OK, and looking further down the road at the 6-10-day outlooks also keeps us warmer than normal and drier than normal going into October.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot