Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Fall Arrives, But Warm Temps Remain

Wednesday, September 23rd 2015, 4:07 am
By: Alan Crone

Welcome to fall.   The autumnal equinox occurred this morning.   If only the weather pattern would match.  We’ve had two decent intrusions of fall-like air for the last two weekends, but these air-masses were quickly replaced with warmer conditions.   It appears the unseasonably warm weather will remain for the next few days.   Keep that fall jacket in the closet for now. 

Our main focus continues to be the old tropical system located across the southwestern U.S. as it ejects to the northeast.   This system will spread mid-level moisture into the state today with partly cloudy conditions across eastern OK.   A few showers or storms will be likely with this system today and tomorrow but most, it not all of these pops will remain to the west of our immediate area of concern.    Temperatures this morning will start in the upper 60s and end in the mid to upper 80s along with south winds at 10 mph.   The unseasonably warm weather pattern will remain for the next few days despite a minor cool down Thursday into part of the weekend.

Daytime highs hit the mid and upper 80s yesterday and should reach the same levels today.   There will remain an outside chance of a few isolated showers across the area today as moisture continues to stream near the region.   Most data continue supporting the higher chances to remain across the northwestern OK region into southwestern and south-central Kansas this afternoon and tonight.   A few of these showers or storms may attempt to migrate eastward near the I-35 corridor region by later tonight and early Thursday morning.   We’ll keep a slight mention in the forecast for areas along and west of the Osage-Pawnee county region, but the odds in the metro will remain near or less than 10%.

Data support temperatures a degree or two cooler Thursday through part of the weekend with morning lows dropping to near 60 and the highs in the lower or mid-80s.   A mid-level disturbance may move across the region Friday and Saturday but at this point, no precipitation will be expected with this disturbance.   A brief wind shift from the northeast will be possible late Thursday night into Friday and this may bring slightly drier air into the northeastern part of the state for a small time Friday evening into Saturday.   The weekend temperatures will start near 60 and end in the 83 to 86 range for most of eastern OK.  

The extended data is unclear, but a front may be nearing the area by the middle of next week.   At this point, no major storm systems will be nearing our area through the remainder of the 7 day planner.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone