Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Windy & Warm

Tuesday, September 15th 2015, 4:05 am
By: Alan Crone

The persistent MCV (convectively induced area of vorticity) that brought yesterday’s showers and storms lasted much longer than anticipated yesterday across the area.   Some showers were still on the radar late afternoon across southern OK yesterday.   This morning some very weak forcing is near the area, but the odds of showers developing seem extremely low.   We’ll go with a dry forecast today along with gusty south winds and highs in the mid to upper 80s.   A few showers or storms may develop Wednesday across extreme eastern OK and western Arkansas as moisture begins returning through the east TX region northward into the Ozarks.    This activity would remain too far the east to impact the Tulsa metro.  It appears our next chance for showers and storms will be arriving sometime Friday night or Saturday as a cold front begins moving southward across the state.   Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible with this system.   The timing of the system may undergo some tweaks between now and Saturday morning.  

Temperatures this morning remain mild and near the seasonal average.   Readings in the mid and upper 60s will move into the mid and upper 80s this afternoon.   The pressure gradient between a surface low to the northwest and ridge to our east will create southerly winds in the 15 to 25 mph range today and the rest of the week.  

A mid-level ridge of high pressure (sub-tropical ridge) has expanded across the south and covers most of the state (or will cover most of the state) through the end of the week.   This ridge is not exceptionally strong but will remain strong enough to keep any significant system out of the area for a few days.   Friday the upper air pattern begins to change.   A trough will move across southern Canada and the northern high plains from the west to east.   The mid-level ridge will flatten and allow a surface cold front to move southward Thursday and Friday.   Friday night into Saturday this front should be pushing into northern OK with showers and storms along and behind the boundary.   The model suggestions regarding available moisture indicate the potential for some heavy rainfall threats for some locations, but it’s too early to pinpoint the exact amounts and locations.  Our severe weather threats will remain low.  

Yesterday the data suggested the front would stall across part of northern or central OK this weekend but this morning’s data suggest the boundary moves into the Red River Valley before stalling.   We’ll drop the temps for Saturday a few degrees from previous forecast.   This means highs Saturday may stay in the upper 70s north and lower 80s south.   We’ll no doubt be making some minor changes to the weekend temperatures over the next few update cycles.  

The upper air pattern may bring another small disturbance across the central plains Sunday night into Monday with the boundary retreating northward.   This “pattern” would suggest the potential for a round of thunderstorm activity into Monday morning or midday.   We’ll introduce a chance for this period and continue to monitor the data.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone