Good morning. A cold front will move into the area later this afternoon and evening bringing a round of showers and storms to portions of the state, including parts of northeastern and eastern OK. A few of the storms may be strong to severe with damaging downburst of wind and some hail. Temperature this afternoon ahead of the front should reach the lower 90s across northern OK and the mid-90s remain possible across southern OK. Temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-80s Wednesday with another front arriving Thursday night into Friday morning. This will bring even cooler air to the region Friday and Saturday. A few showers or storms will be possible with the second system.
Temperatures are warm this morning. Many locations will start in the mid-70s before quickly moving into the upper 80s by the noon hour. The cold front is located to our north this morning, but a few isolated showers or storms may develop well ahead of the boundary this morning to midday as an outflow boundary may slide across part of northeastern OK. This chance will remain around 30 to near 40%.
Sometime after the 3pm period, scattered storms are likely to develop along the front as it moves into northwestern and extreme northern OK. Storm activity is initially anticipated to be rather spotty but would grow upscale by the late afternoon and evening as the front moves southeast. By early evening a line or small cluster of thunderstorm activity is expected to move southeast into east-central and southeastern OK. A few of the storms may still be severe, but the severe threat will be lessening with time and southward extent. The NAM and 4KNAM continue to offer a faster solution compared to the GFS. Our forecast is weighted toward the faster solutions but some showers may linger for a few hours early Wednesday across southeastern OK before exiting the area. The main window for the Tulsa metro appears to be from 6pm to 9pm. Again, an outflow boundary may arrive this morning to midday that could bring a few showers or storms to the area, but this is not the main front.
Temperatures Wednesday will start in the lower 70s and end in the mid-80s. Thursday we’ll be in-between systems with mostly sunny and warm conditions. Lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s will be followed by highs in the upper 80s.
Friday into Saturday two distinct upper air disturbances will near the area. The first one Thursday evening into Friday will help shove another front southward across the state. Any showers or storms will more than likely be confined to areas of northwestern OK. The probability for eastern OK will remain around 20%. Northeast winds will bring slightly cooler air to the area with lows in the lower 60s and highs in the lower 80s. Friday night into Saturday a stronger disturbance will near the area. This should bring another round of showers and storms into the area Friday late into pre-dawn Saturday. The higher chances again may reside to the northwest or west of the immediate Tulsa metro, but it’s too early to have any confidence in these data as this point due to poor run to run consistency. Our forecast will keep a slight chance for showers and storms late Friday night into Saturday with Saturday afternoon highs in the upper 70s. Pleasant weather will remain Sunday into early next week with gradually warming temperatures closer to the seasonal average.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!