Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Increasing Chance For Storms

Friday, August 21st 2015, 4:17 am
By: Alan Crone

The front that moved over the area Wednesday is attempting to retreat northward today as a warm front as a weak mid-level disturbance ejects out of New Mexico into western OK and another disturbance moves across central Kansas this morning.   The front will eventually become diffuse but the result will be a few scattered showers and storms near the area today.  We’ll also keep a chance for a few storms overnight into early Saturday morning.   Another frontal passage is likely Sunday with another chance for a few storms.   Temperatures today will remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s with increasing clouds along with south winds at 10 to 15 mph. 

The lower atmosphere remains somewhat dry this morning with 50 degree dew points remaining across northeastern OK but higher moisture is already entering southern OK at this hour.   Higher dews will move northeast today as moisture slowly returns throughout the area.   A few showers or storms will be possible today as the weak disturbance approaches from the west and the advancing moisture arrives from the south.   We do have some discrepancies regarding the exact timing of these features, so my confidence is not nearly as high today for the “timing" of storm chances compared to the previous system.   A few storms should develop this morning along the Red River Valley and migrate northeast by midday.   A few storms across northwestern OK may be severe due to the closer proximity of the upper level forcing combined with the retreating warm front.   As the evening progresses scattered storms or possibly a small complex of storms should move from the west to east-northeast across the area into pre-dawn Saturday morning but this morning’s data is not nearly as robust with this possibility compared to yesterday morning.   This probability should exit the eastern regions of the state sometime early Saturday morning. 

WARN Interactive Radar

Sunday a surface front will move southward again and reach northern OK around morning to midday.   Some storms will be possible along this boundary.   By Sunday night the front will cross the I-44 corridor region with a chance of late night storms into early Monday.   This front will stall south of the I-40 region but will more than likely remain close enough for a few showers or storms near the area early Monday morning. 

Temperatures today will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s with increasing clouds by midday if not sooner.   Saturday starts in the upper 60s and ends around 90 for the high.   Sunday morning’s lows in the lower 70s will be followed by highs in the mid-80s along with south winds shifting to the north as the front moves southward.   Temperatures early next week will remain slightly below the seasonal average with morning lows in the 60s and highs in the mid-80s.   A gradual warming trend is likely by the end of next week but no “ hot” weather is anticipated.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone